Multi-scenario Simulation Of Land Use Around Dianchi Lake Based On CLUE-S Model

The study area around Dianchi Lake is located in Kunming City,which is the economic,political and cultural center of the whole central Yunnan city group and even the whole Yunnan Province.With the acceleration of the urbanization process of economic development,the land use / Cover Change(LUCC)in the area around Dianchi Lake in Kunming City is affected by human activities and natural factors,which changes the land use structure.How to reasonably plan the land rate And the use of structure,is the current focus of attention.In recent years,residents from all over Kunming immigrate to the city,the government decision-making of urban development is relatively rapid,coupled with other human factors,resulting in great changes in land use structure.Typically,the development of the new area,the increase of migrant workers and the great change of construction area lead to the change of construction land.The corresponding reduction of forest land and cultivated land makes the urban area expand correspondingly,which is also related to the acceleration of urbanization in China.The significance of the topic is to simulate the land use in the study area around Dianchi Lake.It is of auxiliary significance to understand the law of land use structure change in the past and land use development in the future.In this paper,the surrounding districts and counties around the Dianchi Lake area of Kunming city are selected as the research area.According to the classification standard of the second survey,the land use database is divided into five categories: construction land,cultivated land,forest land,water system and facilities land and other land.Classify the data of land use structure in 2009 and 2015,comprehensively analyze the law of land use structure change,generate land use transfer matrix,and analyze the future land use trend in many aspects.The choice of driving factors is the premise of the correctness of the future land use simulation.Considering multiple factors,dozens of driving factors are selected and analyzed by binary logistic regression analysis.As a hybrid model,CLUE-S includes both spatial prediction model and non spatial prediction model.In this paper,the grey prediction model is used to simulate the non spatial area,and the CLUE-S model is used to predict the non spatial area.On the basis of accuracy verification,the driving factors and land use data in 2015 are selected as the base period data for future land use scenarios simulation.The main conclusions are as follows:(1)Analysis of the change of land use quantity from 2009 to 2015.The area of cultivated land,forest land,water system and facilities land and other land decreased by 10032 ha,6752 ha,608 HA and 1887 ha respectively,which indicated that the amount of land transfer occurred between different regions.(2)The transfer out rate and structural change of each land type were analyzed.The highest transfer out rate of land use in Kunming is cultivated land,followed by grassland.The transfer out rate of construction land and other land is relatively low,indicating that construction land and other land are relatively stable.(3)Selection of driving factors and calculation of scale for the model.Choosing appropriate driving factors will directly affect the accuracy of land use simulation.For the selection of simulation scale,the ROC value between land type and driving factor is calculated under each scale.In this paper,the simulation scale is 200 m × 200 m,in which the ROC value between land and driving factors is the largest,indicating that the correlation between land and driving factors is the highest.(4)The simulation and accuracy verification of the land use structure in the area around Dianchi Lake in Kunming City in 2015 were carried out.Set the appropriate parameters,calculate the demand for the use of excavated land,and simulate the land use of the area around Dianchi Lake in Kunming in 2015 with the data of 2009 as the base period,and verify the accuracy.(5)The structure and quantity of land use in the future land scenario are simulated.According to different scenarios,based on the data of land use in 2015,the number and structure of land use in the area around Dianchi Lake of Kunming City in 2022 are simulated.The results show that in 2022,the growth rate of construction land area around Dianchi Lake in Kunming increases,especially in Chenggong New Area,Songming County and Anning City.Under the natural growth scenario,the red line of cultivated land is impacted,the reduction rate of cultivated land is too fast,and the construction area is increased.