Research On The Dynamic Relationship Between The Price Fluctuation Of Agricultural Products And The Increase Of Farmers' Income In My Country

At the present stage,the focus of China's agricultural problems is the growth of farmers' income.Both the precise poverty alleviation strategy and the Rural Revitalization Strategy put forward by the state are committed to achieving the prosperity of farmers' lives.Since the reform and opening up,the price of agricultural products in China has fluctuated frequently,which is directly related to the real direct interests of farmers.Therefore,the relationship between price fluctuation of agricultural products and farmers' income growth is more and more worthy of study.To stabilize the price of agricultural products is conducive to encouraging farmers' enthusiasm for production and ensuring the effective supply of agricultural products.At the same time,it is of great significance to realize the modernization transformation,the stability of agricultural products market and the overall price level,and the growth of farmers' income.Firstly,from the perspective of descriptive statistics.On the one hand,it carries on the stage analysis and the structure analysis to our country's peasant income since the reform and opening up.On the whole,the per capita net income of farmers in China has risen in small fluctuations,and the growth rate is stable.At the same time,the per capita net income composition of rural residents has changed,the proportion of wage income has steadily risen,the anti-excess net operating revenue has jumped to the top of the "four parts".The level of transfer net income has risen sharply between 2012 and 2013.The income proportion of low-income peasant households is not high,and the increase of peasant income is more difficult.On the other hand,it carries on the stage analysis and the structure analysis to our country's agricultural product price.It is found that although there are periodic fluctuations in the prices of agricultural products in China,the overall trend is obviously upward,with frequent and large fluctuations in prices.At the same time,the price of agricultural products in China has risen more or fallen less.Planting and animal husbandry play a more important role in the daily consumption structure of urban and rural residents in China.Secondly,to study the dynamic relationship between price fluctuation of agricultural products and farmers' income growth by further inferring statistics.The method of analysis includes two variables of the total agricultural product price index and multivariate analysis of the composition of the agricultural product price index,co-integration analysis without considering structural mutation,co-integration analysis with structural mutation,error correction model,Granger causality test,variance decomposition,impulse response,etc.Combining Bai-Perron structural breakpoint test method with Chow's breakpoint test method,we found the breakpoint of structural change in 1999 and 2013,and analyzed it in stages.The results showed that there was a long-term equilibrium relationship between price fluctuation of agricultural products and farmers' income growth in 1978-1998,1999-2012 and 2013-2018.And there is Granger causality in different directions at different stages.At the same time,the breakpoint is analyzed realistically to find out the realistic reasons that may become the breakpoint.From the perspective of the price composition of agricultural products,the relationship between the prices of animal husbandry products,planting products,forestry products and farmers' income is further analyzed.It is found that the fluctuation of the price of planting products contributes most to farmers' income,followed by the price of animal husbandry products and the price of forestry products.Finally,combined with the analysis of descriptive statistics and inferential statistics mentioned above,some policy suggestions are given.It includes paying attention to perfecting the logistics system of agricultural products and the monitoring system of the prices of important agricultural products,realizing the "farmer-supermarket docking" to build an integrated chain of production and marketing,deepening the opening up to the outside world,upgrading the level of import and go-out,etc.