Research On The Sustainable Development Of Henan Province Based On The Three-dimensional Ecological Footprint Model

Along with the development of the times and the progress of science and technology,people's demands for their own living standards will become higher.The main contradiction faced by the country will also change with the changes in people's needs.The transformation of this major contradiction also reflects people's desire and pursuit of high quality life.Therefore,in order to meet these needs of people,it is necessary to accelerate the pace of economic development,which will inevitably lead to a sharp increase in the consumption of resources and environmental pollution.In this context,how to achieve sustainable development and how to establish a resource-saving and environment-friendly society have become the focus of many scholars.Taking henan province as an example,firstly,the equilibrium factor and production factor calculated in terms of “global hectares” are converted into equalization factors and production factors in “national hectares” in some ways,so that they can be closer to the actual situation we studied.On this basis,we constructed an ecological footprint account that meeting the actual situations of Henan Province based on the traditional ecological footprint model,and calculated its ecological carrying capacity and ecological surplus situation,through calculating the results we found: The ecological supply and demand of cultivated land,pasture grassland,fossil energy land and construction land in Henan Province is in a state of deficit all the year round.Only the ecological supply and demand of the water is in a surplus state,and this unsustainable state becomes more and more serious with the growth of the year,this result shows that the sustainable development of Henan Province is facing a very serious situation.Secondly,on the basis of the traditional ecological footprint model,we introduced the two measurement indexes of footprint breadth and footprint depth,expanded the scope of its horizontal and vertical research,and transformed the traditional ecological footprint model from two-dimensional research to three-dimensional research.Natural capital is classified to reflect the sustainability of the development of various ecological resources through the use of its stock capital.Through research and analysis,we find that in most years,the footprint depth of henan province is greater than 1,and the stock capital is occupied for a long time.In 12 years,even 8 years,the footprint depth is more than 2,which shows that twice of the natural resources can not meet the production and living needs of people at this stage,and the ecological footprint depth has also shown an upward trend.Finally,we adopted the second exponential smoothing and the third exponential smoothing to predict the three-dimensional ecological footprint change trend and ecological carrying capacity change trend in Henan Province from 2019 to 2025 and through the results we found: 2019-2025,the per capita ecological footprint and the per capita ecological carrying capacity of henan province presents the increasing trend,but the overall increase is not particularly large.However,from 2019 to 2025,Henan Province is in an ecological deficit state.The deficit state occurs when both the ecological footprint and the ecological carrying capacity are increasing,mainly because the growth rate of ecological carrying capacity is faster than the growth rate of per capita ecological footprint,in under the condition of the ecological footprint and ecological carrying capacity growth appear deficit mainly because of the ecological carrying capacity are growing faster than the growth rate of per capita ecological footprint,but from the overall change,the deficit state has eased with time.