Empirical Research On The Measurement Of Chinese Real Estate Bubble

As a pillar industry of China's real estate industry,involving many sectors of the national economy.Its industry nature is the high correlation and strong driving force which establish itself as a pillar station of economy.Complex industry characteristics make complex real estate price trends showing characteristics.Characteristics of industry is so Complex that make the real estate price trends showing the characteristics of the complex.Since 2003,the rapid development of the real estate market gradually revealed many problems,and excessive growth of house prices is one of them.Growing too fast prone price bubble which is a threat to economic.So it's necessary to research the extent of real estate bubble and the distribution characteristics of the bubble.The paper bases on the resent condition of real estate bubble and the theoretical assumptions of bubble causes in China's big and medium-sized cities.And use 35 big and medium-sized cities as objects.Using SFA to analyze the contributing factors of each city's house prices and the degree of real estate bubble.The article uses three indicators of PIR,real estate investment accounted for the proportion of investment in fixed assets,real estate sales price increase / GDP growth rate to analyze China's resent condition of real estate bubble.Then proposed theoretical assumptions.Selecting real estate sales prices,the cost of housing units completed,real estate investment,per capita disposable income of urban residents,domestic loans as variables,and based on the judgment of PIR to introduce dummy variable of the East,Midwest City.Estimated by Frontier4.1 software to assume the authenticity of argumentation.Measuring out 35 cities' bubble level of 13 years.Comparing the empirical results with the results of PIR analysis.Drawing the full text of the conclusions.Then we get a conclusion that real estate bubble present in the big and mediumsized cities,and there are significant time and spatial characteristics.Price bubble showed a change in trend in descending order according to the three regions.Fluctuations in the time span of the trend coincide with the trend of economic cycles.Cost of housing units completed has a positive impact on real estate Investment,but not big enough than per capita disposable income has,so the price growth was mainly caused by demand factors.Regional differences and bank credit of domestic loan are the main reason to drive the bubble.The national macro-control should take measurement in the following aspects: legislative support,credit management,information disclosure and theoretical research to control the real estate bubble.This paper has 10 figures,10 tables,and 69 references.