Ningbo Ordinary Commodity Housing Bubble Analysis

From 1998, with the end of welfare-oriented public housing distribution and the beginning of housing commercialization, our realty business has been entering into sustainable development period. Keeping up with rapid urbanization process, housing price continue to rise together. The supply and demand of real estate present both prosperous, Which are especially evident in some big cities. In this regard, people from all circles of life, including ordinary people, paid strong concern on the issues such as the tenability of housing price and bubbles of realty business etc. This paper based on bubbles theory of the real estate, studies the real estate bubble synthesizes from the ratio of house price to income, synchronous rate of house price and rent, synchronous rate of house price and CPI, the ratio of growths rate of housing sale volume and total retail sales of consumer goods, investment intensity of real estate, as well as synchronous rate of residential mortgage loans increase and income growth etc. With the example of ningbo real estate, the paper focus on the study and identify of bubble of real estate, then analysis the harmfulness and the reason of bubbles, finally propose the steps accordingly.