Study On Credit Risk Measure And Control Of Rural Land Contract Right Mortgage Loan

The rural reform has made breakthrough that rural production force and peasants' living standard has improved significantly with the of agricultural technology enhancing and agricultural policies perfection.Vitalizing rural land and giving rural equity powers and functions have become more important in rural finance development.The rural land contract right mortgage loan that generated by “Division of Three Rights” is one of the points of penetration to solve finance problem of newly-typed agricultural entity.Rural land contract right mortgage loan faces credit risk,collateral disposition risk,and legal risk and so on.How the loss degree to finance institutions once rural land contract right mortgage loan defaulted? How to prevent and control credit risk of rural land contract right mortgage loan? Those questions must to be solved to finance institutions and government.This thesis uses 1173 rural land contract right mortgage loan samples to identify the influencing factors using Logistic model and forecasts the default probability of rural land contract right mortgage loan.And then,this thesis use Credit Risk+ Model to measure the credit risk of rural land contract right mortgage loan and the main index includes Va R,expected loss and unexpected loss.While,makes the pressure test.On this basis,this article uses RAROC loan pricing theory to discuss the expected loss control and its economic capital management measures.Put forwards the conclusions and policy recommendations.The logic structure of the article is as follows:Chapter 1 is introduction.This chapter introduces research background,research purpose and research significance.This part analysis risk form mechanism,risk measurement and risk control of agricultural loan and rural land contract right mortgage loan based on domestic and foreign researches.It also made choice of research method and research route.Lastly,it determined research contents and technology route and point the innovations.Chapter 2 is relative theories.Defining the relevant concepts and explains the relevant theoretical basis.Analyzing the mechanism and influencing factors of the credit risk of the rural land contract right mortgage loan from the theoretical point of view.It also expounds the credit risk measurement models and makes a judgment on the feasibility of applying the credit risk measurement method to the rural land contract right mortgage loan combined with the actual situation in our country.Chapter 3 is credit risk control status and problems of rural land contract right mortgage loan.It analyzes the present situation and problems of credit risk control from the perspective of risk method,risk mitigation and compensation mechanism,rural property transfer efficiency and rural land valuation.Chapter 4 is credit risk factors of rural land contract right mortgage loan.Firstly,it explains the data source and sample basic situation.Secondly,the Logistic default probability prediction model is constructed to explore the factors influencing the default of the rural land contract right mortgage loan.Thirdly,according to the prediction results of the default probability,using the cluster analysis method to carry on the credit rating.Chapter 5 is the measurement and control of the credit risk of agricultural land contract right mortgage loan.Firstly,the Credit Risk+ model is constructed to estimate Va R,expected loss,unexpected loss.Secondly,analyzes the contribution of farmer households with different characteristics to the credit risk,and finds that the influence of various factors on the default risk of the rural land contract right mortgage loan is orderly.Thirdly,stress testing.Fourth,based on the RAROC loan pricing theory,discusses the prevention of expected losses and the management of economic capital.Chapter 6 is the conclusions and policy recommendations.This article gains the main factors affecting the credit risk of rural land contract right mortgage loan.And that the duration of the loan and the agricultural business cycle does not match the prominent contradiction;different source of land contract rights makes different land contract right mortgage risk contribution;the expected loss and unexpected loss proportion of Va R structure is reasonable,but still need to guard against potential risks;land management right mortgage financing credit the risk has been effectively controlled,but the fine degree of lack of main conclusions.Lastly,this article put forward relative policy recommendations according to the conclusions.