The Empirical Study Of Time-vary Relationship Between Electricity Consumption And Economy Growth

Electricity is one of the most important foundation for the development of national economy and normal operation of modern society.It is crucial to keep the coordinated development of the electricity consumption and economy growth.On the one hand,the electricity supply institution often predict the growth rate of electricity demand according to the target economy growth rate in the government reports.On the other hand,macroeconomic researchers always verify the economy development situation through the electricity consumption growth rate.Thus,the relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth has been paid more and more attentions by scholars.Meanwhile,as one of the most important national economic center,Shenzhen is not only the first special economic zone,but also the first pilot region of electric power reform in China.Thus,it is meaningful and representative to take Shenzhen as an example to analyze the relationship between electricity consumption and economy growth.In the existing literature,most scholars using co-integration analysis,Granger causality test and vector error correction model to study the equilibrium relationship or cause and effect between the electricity consumption and GDP.But they don't get the consistent conclusions.For the different time intervals and the different regions of samples,the conclusions of literature are totally different.Besides,as the operation of macro-economy is a complex system,the relationship between electricity consumption and economy growth can be dynamic.So there would be model specification error in the regression analysis based on the linear parameter model.Especially,with the new normal economy,the relationship between electricity consumption and economy growth enters the adjustment phase.Thus,this paper use the semi-parametric time-varying coefficient model and local linear estimation method to analyze the dynamic relationship between electricity consumption and economy growth.It focuses on estimating time-vary productive electricity elasticity from January in 2005 to August in 2015 in Shenzhen.This paper also make hypothesis test on semi-parametric model by bootstrap method.Through the econometric analysis,this paper find that the total electricity elasticity and the second industry electricity elasticity have a significant downward trend,while the third industry electricity elasticity doesn't change significantly over time.At the same time,the mean value of total electricity elasticity is less than the average of the second industry electricity elasticity,but greater than the third industry electricity elasticity.So we get the conclusion that there are two important reasons causing the total electricity elasticity decreasing.On the one hand,optimization and upgrading of industrial structure increases the proportion of the tertiary industry GDP.Since the third industry electricity elasticity is smaller than the second industry electricity elasticity,the increasing proportion of the third industry GDP can reduce the dependence and influence of total economy growth on electricity.On the other hand,Shenzhen has striven to develop strategic emerging industries and to renovate highly polluting or energy-intensive enterprise.As the largest sources demanding of electricity consumption in the second industry,manufacture shifts from energy-intensive to technology intensive and innovation intensive.So that the electricity consumption growth rate is lower than the economic growth rate,which lead the second industry electricity elasticity to decrease with time.