The Influence And Evaluation Of Countries’ Political Risk Along ’The Belt And Road Initiative’ On China’s Foreign Direct Investment

’The Belt and Road Initiative’ is a national strategy,involving diplomatic relations,foreign investment,development planning and international economy,put forward by President Xi.The strategy across the Eurasian continent upgrade the’Going Global Strategies’ and China’s opening-up program even the whole strategic framework of economic development.China’s foreign direct investment will come into a new development climax in its implementation.China’s foreign direct investment has maintained a sustained growth since year 2002,emitting a strong vitality and potential and also facing many risk factors at the same time among which,the political risk is particularly prominent.Studying on the countries’ political risk along ’The Belt and Road Initiative’ and assessing the status of their political risk will be helpful to a better implementation of ’The Belt and Road Initiative’,avoiding huge losses caused by the political risks of the host country.Firstly,this paper describes the background and significance of the research,summarizes the research results of the predecessors in the field,puts forward the research ideas and framework,and defines the basic concepts of this paper.Secondly,combining with the global and local Moran index and scatter map of Moran index,we found that growth rate of China’s foreign direct investment has significant spatial association,there is a certain relationship between growth rate of China’s foreign direct investment and China’s foreign development strategy.Thirdly,this paper construct the spatial panel model on the basis of the spatial correlation effect.We first introduce the complex network theory to establish spatial weight matrix based on the relationship of trade between countries,then we compare and analyze the two models of SDM and SDEM,the result shows that the political risk of host country has spillover effects,the political risk of host country and neighboring countries could significantly affect growth rate of China’s foreign direct investment in the host country.Finally,we take political risk variables which have significant impact on growth rate of China’s foreign direct investment stock as the input layer of the SOM network to get the political risk grade of the countries along ’The Belt and Road Initiative’.The result shows that Indonesia,Turkey,Qatar,Singapore,Malaysia and Saudi Arabia have the lowest political risk.In this paper,the main innovation is introducing the Complex Network Theory into the construction of new spatial weight matrix and using Spatial Econometric Model to study the influence of host countries,and neighboring countries,political risk on host country,incorporating the spillover effect of neighboring countries’political risk into the rating model,which makes the political risk rating model more reasonable.