Establishment And Application Of Revenue And Expenditure Forecasting Model Of Basic Endowment Insurance Fund For Enterprise Employees

Aged tendency of population has become an unavoidable important issue in all countries of the world.Over the years,China has implemented a strict one-child policy,so the problem of population aging is more serious than that of developed countries.With the aged tendency of population,the gap between the endowment insurance revenue and expenditure has become larger and larger,which has seriously hampered the operation of the fiscal revenue and expenditure in China.Against this background,it is particular important to strengthen the budget management of revenue and expenditure of social security funds.As the trustee of the basic endowment insurance fund for enterprise employees,how to build a scientific revenue and expenditure forecast model,how to do well in the budget of fund revenue and expenditure,how to improve the operation and management ability of the fund will be the evaluation of the government's working ability.This paper takes the operation of basic endowment insurance fund for employees of enterprises in Guangxi as the research object.By inquiring the annual reports of Guangxi Social Insurance Fund from 2013 to 2017 and related data,based on the rules and regulations concerning the pension of employees in China and Guangxi,the paper adds the central and local financial subsidy modules to the existing revenue actuarial model consisting of collection income and investment income,and divides the existing expenditure actuarial model to calculate each module in detail.Finally,a long-term and a short-term revenue and expenditure forecasting models of the basic endowment insurance fund for employees of enterprises in in line with the actual situation of Guangxi is constructed.Based on these models,the revenue,expenditure and balance of basic endowment insurance fund's social unified account for employees of enterprises in Guangxi during the period of 2019-2023and 2030-2050 are predicted.According to the prediction results of the model,the following conclusions are drawn in this paper:(1)In the period of 2019-2023,the basic endowment insurance fund for employees of enterprises in Guangxi will balance their revenue and expenditure,with a slight surplus.It has become more dependent on fiscal subsidies,but financial sustainability has no risk.(2)In 2030—2050,the current balance of the basic endowment insurance fund for employees of enterprises in Guangxi is decreasing,and the risk of financial sustainability is increasing,which the government should pay close attention to.(3)According to further research,it can be concluded that reducing the payment ratio can improve the parameters matching of the fund system and reduce the cost of employment,but it will impact the financial sustainability of the basic endowment insurance for employees of enterprises,increase the pressure of the government's financial operation,and put forward higher requirements for the operation ability of the government's fund.(4)There are many parameters involved in revenue and expenditure forecasting.Building a scientific and resonable model can improve the forecasting accuracy in a certain range,but if we want to make a good budget,we need to revise the forecasting results in the light of historical conditions.(5)Increasing the number of on-the-job insurers is a long-term way to improve the revenue of the basic endowment insurance fund for employees of enterprises,and is also the key to maintain the financial sustainability of the basic endowment insurance fund for employees of enterprises.