Influence Factors And Trend Prediction Of The Consumer Price Index In Guizhou Province

In recent years,with the rapid development of global economy,the consumer price index has experienced the ups and downs of changes.Because of the influence of the American financial crisis in 2008,the CPI has risen sharply.It brought great influence to the social economy and people's life.For example,it lead to the unemployment rate has increasing,and it also has brought huge uncertainly to investment and consumption.Therefore,the article that the influence factors of CPI and trend prediction has important theoretical and practical significance.The article selects the CPI monthly data in GuiZhou from Jan.2003 to Dec.2015 and conducted statistical analysis.Data from the national bureau of statistics.The main purpose of this paper is to analyze the influencing factor of the consumer price index in GuiZhou and make the trend prediction.Firstly,we analyze the CPI monthly data from Jan.2003 to Dec.2014using vector autoregression model.And we use Eviews software to make a fitting model and analyze influencing factors.The results show that food,housing,drinking and smoking and clothing are the main influencing factors.Then,we make the trend analysis to the consumer price index in GuiZhou,and using ARIMA model to predict the CPI value from Jan.To Dec.2015.According to the result of prediction shows that the model is fitting better.