Construction And Prediction Analysis Of Development Index Of Foreign Contracted Engineering Industry

This paper constructs an index system for analyzing the development trend of foreign contracted engineering industry.Use ARIMA,Winter seasonal exponential smoothing,two exponential smoothing,regression prediction method to predict the foreign project contracting industry scale,predict and comparative analysis financial data of the choosing enterprises.Analysis the data of foreign contracted engineering industry,analysis the trend of average contract amount data,found that after 2000 years the contract amount of China's foreign contracted engineering industry pattern showed a larger different,before 2000 years China's average contract amount is relatively stable,and after 2000 years,the contract amount in average had large fluctuations,and further analysis was carried out based on this phenomenon;use the temporal correlation analysis to analysis the amount of contract amount of one order difference,found that the contract amount and the revenue have certain temporal correlation;The average contract amount of the future trend is predicted with the method of ARIMA.The prediction results show that the contract amount will continue to show upward trend;the use of ARIMA methods of business amount prediction,good results were obtained.Forecast and compared the five international engineering contracting enterprises operating income and liabilities subject,by exponential smoothing prediction on revenue results,the method of regression to predict the debt scale better,and according to the trend of the data fitting results are compared and analyzed.A comparative analysis of the financial statements of the five selected enterprises,including the balance sheet,the income statement and the cash flow statement,including structural analysis and trend analysis.Finally using ARIMA prediction method on the profitability of China railway construction forecast.