Research On The Relationship Among Credit Expansion, House Price Fluctuation And Banking Systemic Risk

In recent years,the central bank adopted loose monetary policy,China's credit scale continued expansion,housing prices are rising,many international financial crisis tells us to pay attention to the housing bubble,It will deteriorate the credit quality and cause the banking system crisis.The vast majority of the financial crisis are closely related with the real estate bubble,and the real estate bubble basically is caused by excessive credit expansion.Therefore,this article describes the relationship among China's credit expansion,price volatility and Banking Systemic risk from the theoretical analysis and empirical analysis.In the theoretical analysis,Credit expansion affect the price fluctuations through the impact on real estate demand and supply,the price fluctuations affect credit expansion by affecting the demand and supply of credit at the same time.According to the debt deflation theory,financial fragility theory,information asymmetry theory and financial accelerator theory,This article analyses the impact mechanism of price fluctuation on the bank credit risk.Using a series of data,this article analyses the current situation of house price fluctuation and credit expansioninchina.In recent years,thebank credit is expanding,especially the the individual housing mortgage loan.The housing prices are rising generally,The price income ratio alert us to pay attention to the real estate bubble.In the empirical analysis,this article uses panel data to analyze the relationship between price volatility and credit expansion in 31 provinces.Based on the analysis of the influencing factors of banking systemic risk,Principal component analysis is used to construct a system to measure the systemic risk since 1998.Select the appropriate indicator variables,using the VAR model of relationship credit expansion,the price fluctuation and Banking Systemic Risk,This article analyses the impact of credit expansion on housing price fluctuation and how these two factors affect the banking systematic risks from the empirical angle.Finally,according to the empirical results,combined with theoretical analysis,a series of policy recommendations are put forward,which can effectively control the Banking Systemic Risk and avoid the financial crisis caused by the housing price bubble.