Research On The Relationship Between Export Trade And Economic Growth In China

Over the past 30 years since reform and opening,Chinese economy has achieved remarkable growth,but its growth is not stable,and the malaise of uncoordinated and unsustainable economic growth patterns has been highlighted.All of these have become important issues that need to be solved in the process of China's economic transformation and upgrading.They are also pressing issues that China must resolve in order to adjust its status in the international division of labor system during the process of economic globalization.The "Belt and Road" initiative has indicated the direction for the transfer of excess domestic production in China-the international market.It provides an important opportunity for China's industrial restructuring and adjustment of export trade.By combing the relationship between export trade and economic growth,this paper concludes that China's economic growth will promote the increase of China's export trade,and China's increasing export trade will promote the economic growth of the countries.Then the framework is confirmed by the empirical analysis of 41 sample country data and semi parametric global vector autoregressive model.The semi parametric global vector autoregressive model can reflect the correlation between variables but not just the influence of one direction,and it can incorporate multiple influencing factors in the same model which is closer to the real economic environment.So,in this article the semi parametric global vector autoregressive model is more suitable for studying the possible interaction relationship between export trade and economic growth.The research shows that:(1)The increase of China's export trade will mainly promote the economic growth of countries along the"Belt and Road" and will have the greatest impact on China's economic growth;(2)China's economic growth will promote China's export trade to the countries along the"Belt and Road" and will also increase domestic consumption,but its promotion will not be as effective as the former.Besides,China's economic growth will mainly promote the economic growth of countries along the "Belt and Road",and will have the greatest impact on China's economy;(3)China's increase in export trade to South Asia,Southeast Asia,and Central Asia has the best transmission efficiency for its economic growth in these three regions;(4)The "Belt and Road " initiative promotes China's export trade,and the increase of China's export trade promotes the economic growth of China and other "Belt and Road" countries.Therefore,the "Belt and Road"initiative is expected to promote the common development of the regional countries economy and mutual benefit;(5)The rise of China's exchange rate inhibits economic growth,The impact of international crude oil prices on China's economy is nonlinear.And when the international crude oil price is higher than a certain level,China's economy will be inhibited;(6)There is a spatial heterogeneity in the effects of the variables mentioned above,that is,the same variable has different effects on the same variables in different regions or countries.According to the above conclusions,this paper gives the following suggestions:We should continue to promote the "Belt and Road" initiative.With this opportunity,China's excess production will seek overseas markets to obtain the highest pro:fits,while also promoting the economic growth of importing countries,and ultimately achieving regional economic growth.In the next few years,China's export trade choice should be based on maintaining the original export trade partnership and increasing cooperation with countries with less trade cooperation.We should consider strengthening cooperation with South Asia,Southeast Asia and Central Asia.In the choice of cooperation countries,we need to take into consideration all aspects of the cooperative country's policy system,economic status,domestic and international environment and social stability.