Research On Prediction Of Financial Distress Based On Quality Of Information Disclosure

The rapid economic development and continuous expansion of the capital market have brought impacts and competition to enterprises.The economic environment facing enterprises has become increasingly complex and diverse.In order to deal with the financial crisis that may occur at any time,on the basis of understanding the financial status of the listed company,it is also necessary to evaluate various aspects from time to time to achieve sustainable development and scientific decision-making.Under this economic environment,how to accurately predict the financial crisis of listed companies has become an important issue.After using many financial indicators to build prediction models,more and more non-financial indicators have entered the eyes of scholars.The quality of information disclosure has always been the focus of attention of the majority of scholars,but most of them are related to corporate internal control.The use of information disclosure quality as an indicator to predict financial distress has become a subject of constant research by scholars.Most of the traditional financial distress prediction models use financial indicators as input variables,but the more perfect the index system,the more aspects considered can improve the accuracy of the forecast model.Therefore,only the use of financial indicators without considering the impact of other factors on the accuracy of the prediction model is open to question.This article examines the effect of information disclosure quality on the future development of financial distress on the basis of previous financial index systems.In this dissertation,I started with an introduction to the analysis of financial distress and related theories about the quality of information disclosure,combed the past research results of financial distress prediction and information disclosure quality,and completed empirical research under the guidance of the theory.When a company has a financial anomaly in its business process,the China Securities Regulatory Commission will focus on related companies and select 96 listed companies in the Shenzhen Stock Exchange A-share manufacturing industry as research samples to conduct in-depth studies on the quality of information disclosure to predict financial distress.influences.Among them,because of the abnormal financial status,24 companies have been ST,and the other 72 are normal companies;then the research sample is divided into two groups,the first group will be 64(48 normal companies +16 ST companies)companies As a training sample used to build the model,the remaining 32(24 normal companies + 8 ST companies)homes were used as the second set of test samples to test the model.This article refers to the selection of indicators of financial distress prediction models by other scholars.At the same time,combining the characteristics of China's manufacturing industry,35 forecasting indicators including information disclosure quality indicators are selected.These indicators reflect the profitability and debt repayment of listed companies.Capacity,cash flow capacity,growth capacity,governance structure,type of audit opinion,and quality of information disclosure.Then this paper preprocesses these forecasting indicators.After the normality test,independent sample T test and non-parametric test,the SPSS 22.0 software is used to eliminate 15 predictors that have no significant effect on the ST of the listed company.The remaining 20 forecasting indicators have been constructed into a forecasting indicator system;immediately afterwards,factor analysis is used to exclude the collinearity problem among the remaining forecasting indicators.Six common factors are mainly used,and after that,these common factors are performed.Named,in which the accumulated variance can exceed 82.657% above the contribution rate.From a different point of view,it is achieved that most of the forecasting indicators are achieved,from which we can find that the final result is very satisfactory.In the end,this paper mainly uses the logistic regression model to construct a logistic regression model,and removes the equations one by one from the common factors that have no significant effect on the regression equation.The final prediction model is obtained.According to the empirical results of the forecasting model constructed in this paper,the accuracy rate of the prediction of the first group of training samples returned to the test reached 89.1%,and the accuracy of the second group of test samples to the prediction model test reached 93.8%.According to the test results,it is concluded that the financial distress prediction model based on information disclosure quality constructed in this paper has a relatively large impact,especially the impact on the listed companies related to the Shenzhen Stock Exchange A-share manufacturing industry.Can be used for the prediction of financial distress of such companies in China,with good practical value.