Research On The Changing Trend Of China's Current Account Under The Condition Of U.S. Economic Rebalance

Since the beginning of this century,the global economic imbalances have become increasingly intensified,mainly reflected in the huge current account deficits in the developed countries,represented by the United States,and the large current account surpluses in a large number of emerging market countries represented by China.From the perspective of China and the United States,the global economic imbalance is rooted in irrational economic structure.The United States has been heavily industrialized,the proportion of manufacturing industry as a proportion of GDP has been declining year by year,and the real economy has declined.Domestic total output cannot meet the domestic aggregate demand,it needs to rely on imports to make up,resulting in a large current account deficit.At the same time,the decline of the real economy is accompanied by the rise of virtual economy,virtual economy increasingly developed in the United States,the economy virtualization degree deepening year by year,the massive influx of capital,resulting in a huge capital account surplus.The United States has implemented a series of economic rebalancing strategies in response to this global economic imbalance,such as proposing a "reindustrialization" strategy to revitalize the real economy,implementing trade protection policies,restricting imports,and protecting local manufacturing industries in order to achieve balance of payments.As China's largest exporter,changes in the economic structure of the United States will inevitably have a negative impact on China's exports of tradable goods,thus affecting China's current account and thus affecting China's economic development.Therefore,China needs to adjust its economic structure and transforms its development methods of economy.It is based on the above-mentioned status quo that this paper analyzes the relevant theories of balance of payments adjustment.We also conducted a statistical analysis of the changes in China's current account and the imbalance in the US economy.Using factor analysis and time series measurement methods,we studied the changing trend of China's current account under the condition of U.S.economic rebalancing.The empirical results show that the degree of industrialization in the United States,world interest rates,and population dependency ratios are in the opposite direction of changes in China's current account balance.And the degree of US economy virtualization,the degree of China's industrialization,the degree of China's economic virtualization,government revenue and expenditure,overseas net assets,foreign trade openness,economic growth rate,relative per capita income,and financial deepening are the same as those of China's current account.From the point of view of the adjustment of the US economic structure,the lower the degree of industrialization in the United States,the smaller the proportion of manufacturing value added to GDP,and the larger the current account surplus in China;on the contrary,China's current account tends to be in deficit.And the higher the degree of virtualisation of the US economy and the smaller the real economy,the larger the current account balance of China and the more it tends to trade surplus.On the contrary,China's current account tends to be in deficit.It can thus be seen that the re-industrial adjustment in the United States does have an adverse effect on China's current account,making it show a trend of deficits.This kind of change has an adverse effect on China's macro economy,such as economic growth,employment stability,and internal and external economic balance.In light of this,based on the empirical results,combined with the actual situation in China,we have proposed policy recommendations to keep our current account balanced.We hope that these policy proposals can provide reference for the formulation of China's macroeconomic policies and the healthy development of the national economy.