The Estimation And Application Analysis Of Material Capital In Shandong Province

Whether in the field of macroeconomic analysis or in the field of regional economic analysis,the stock of physical capital is an important variable.In particular,at many empirical levels of research,such as economic growth,investment efficiency,total factor productivity,etc.,capital stocks are used.However,in the current official statistics published by the Chinese government,there is no direct disclosure of the physical capital stock data at the regional level.This requires us to use relevant data and use appropriate methods and indicators to estimate.How to accurately calculate our country’s capital stock has always been a difficult issue in the current research process of China’s economic growth.The research carried out by many scholars in the academia has used many assumptions and methods,leading to the existence of numerous versions of capital stock data,with large deviations.On the one hand,the estimation of inter-provincial material capital stocks is also facing a similar situation.This shows that there is room for improvement in the estimation of the physical capital stock.Review the relevant literature and found that in the past estimation process,there are differences in the estimation methods,estimation indicators,and related data that scholars have chosen.This is the main reason for the inconsistency of estimation and research results.Therefore,this article focuses on the improvement and perfection of the estimation methods,estimated indicators,and related data,and estimates the material capital stock of Shandong Province,facilitating the subsequent analysis and research of regional economy.At present,the mainstream method for estimating the stock of physical capital in the world is the perpetual inventory method proposed by Goldsmith in 1951,and Chinese scholars mostly use Goldsmith to create a stock of physical capital.Perpetual inventory method.Because many scholars have adopted different assumption methods and processing methods for the availability and reliability of the physical capital stock data,the material data of China’s physical capital are quite different,which seriously affects the accuracy of economic research.On the whole,the domestic research on the physicalcapital stock first needs to estimate the material capital stock in the base year,then estimate the investment amount in each year,and finally accumulate the investment amount in each year into the material capital stock in the base year.Get the stock of physical capital for each year.In this article,the amount of investment in the current year was replaced by the total fixed capital formation in Shandong Province.The investment product price index was replaced by the Shandong Province’s fixed asset investment price index,and the relative efficiency of capital goods was assumed to decrease in a geometric manner.The estimation of the depreciation rate needs to be used.The depreciation amount of fixed capital in the input-output table of Shandong Province,and the calculation of the base year’s material capital stock need to use the internal relationship between the capital stock and related economic data series.Using the formula of perpetual inventory method to calculate iteratively,the material capital stock of Shandong Province from 1990 to 2015 was obtained.On the basis of estimating the stock of physical capital,this paper will analyze the material capital investment efficiency and investment model in Shandong Province from a macro perspective,in which the two main indicators of capital output ratio and incremental capital output ratio are used,and finally the physical capital stock,Investment efficiency and production function are placed under the same research framework,and interpretations are made based on the regression results to provide basis for the formulation of policy recommendations.