Research On Industrial Evolution And Its Influencing Factors Of China's Natural Rubber Industry

Natural rubber is an important industrial raw material and strategic material.Developed from poverty and blankness by government,China's natural rubber industry has developed into the largest growing scale and the leading industry in remote areas and tropical area with relatively backward economic development.Moreover,in the background of rural revitalization,the natural rubber industry will be an important industrial support for the revitalization of tropical rural areas in China.However,as a typical resource-constrained industry,natural rubber industry is facing a dilemma because of the slowdown of traditional elements of the real estate industry and the weakening development and contribution of industries now.On this background,It is of great theoretical and practical significance to study the evolutionary factors of China's natural rubber industry.The thesis is based on the theory of industrial evolution,the theory of agricultural development and the theory of technology.First of all,the thesis combines the different stages of the industrial life cycle divided by scholars and puts forward the revised industrial life cycle curve.Secondly,by using the curve of the Gong Booz curve,calculation judgment method and empirical comparison method,combining quantitative and qualitative methods,we construct China natural rubber Industrial production cycle model from the following four dimensions of industrial scale,industrial market structure and competitive environment,technological progress and efficiency,and government role,time division of different stages of China's natural rubber industry.The paper constructed the mechanism of industrial evolution another time.On the supply side,the production data of three reclamation areas in Hainan,Yunnan and Guangdong from 1990 to 2016 are constructed to construct a modified log-based production function model to study how some elements(land,labor,capital,technology,price,international product competition,system and concentration)make impact on the industrial evolution.On the demand side,we use the natural gas consumption in China and related macroeconomic data from 1990 to 2016 to construct multiple regression model to study the influence on the evolution of alternative products made by macroeconomic environment,the demand for rubber-related products and the factors that.The main conclusions of the dissertation are as following:(1)China's natural rubber industry is at a mature stage in the present.Under the condition of constant external environment,the industry will enter into a recession by the year 2025.It is necessary to further analyze the factors that affect the industrial evolution and promote industrial upgrading.(2)Industrial concentration,land,capital and previous rubber price changes have a positive impact on output changes.Labor force,import proportion and industrial policies have a negative impact on output changes.Among them,the marginal benefits of traditional factors of production decline.Technological advances tend to rely on land elements and labor factors,which can save land and labor or increase land and labor output.However,they are lack of attention to capital-based technologies.(3)The macroeconomic environment,the demand for rubber-covered products and the competition for alternative products have a significant positive impact on the demand of domestic natural rubber.On this basis,the dissertation puts forward the corresponding specific recommendations from extending the benefits of traditional elements,increasing technical input,concerning about the external mutation factors and building the industrial chain,etc.