| Since the implementation of the Western Development Program,the annual GDP growth rate of Loess Plateau Region is as high as 15.50%,the economic growth rate is rapid,and the eco-environment governance effect is remarkable.However,in recent years,under the background of rapid urbanization,the urban social-economic system of Loess Plateau Region shows a vulnerability state in many aspects,such as public facilities,social security,industrial layout,economic development and so on,and the risks faced by the city need to be identified and controlled.At present,the Belt and Road Initiative has entered the stage of all-round promotion.The 13th five-year plan of Rising Strategy in Central Region and the 13th five-year plan of Western Development Program have been issued one after another.While the national macro-strategic planning brings development opportunities to the study of regional cities,it inevitably brings disturbance risks in environment,industry,population and society.At present,the Loess Plateau Region is in the critical period of climbing over the ridge,transformation and upgrading,accelerating the rise.How to coordinate the relationship among economic growth,industrial undertaking and upgrading,urbanization,resources and environmental carrying capacity and urban society is an important issue to be studied and solved urgently.From the above background,this paper defined the concept of urban social-economic system vulnerability,and constructed the index system with the criteria of "Exposure-Sensitivity-Adaptability capacity" of vulnerability assessment.Taking the administrative region of cities as the research scale,this paper selected two time periods in 2005 and 2015.The vulnerability index was calculated by AHP,entropy method and weighted sum model.The paper studied the spatial-temporal pattern of urban social-economic system vulnerability in Loess Plateau Region by ArcGIS and OpenGeoda software,and discussed the influencing factors of vulnerability.The main conclusions are as follows:(1)From 2005 to 2015,urban socio-economic system vulnerability in Loess Plateau Region can be divided into five levels:lower vulnerability,low vulnerability,medium vulnerability,high vulnerability and higher vulnerability.The overall vulnerability of Loess Plateau Region is moderate and about 60%of the cities are in the low vulnerability and medium vulnerability level and "differential" is significant.In spatial differentiation,urban socio-economic system vulnerability is gradually increasing from east to west along with the extension of Loess Plateau Region to inland.(2)From the dynamic evolution point of view,urban social-economic system in Loess Plateau Region shows a downward trend,and the gap between the administrative regions within the study area gradually narrowed.From the administrative level,social-economic system vulnerability in cities such as prefecture level city,region and autonomous prefecture is in a downward trend,but the vulnerability of provincial capital city is rising,which should be the object of attention for the sustainable development of cities in Loess Plateau Region.From the index system criterion level,the stratified vulnerability of population development,social development,economic scale and economic structure show an upward trend,and the stratified vulnerability of infrastructure and economic efficiency show a downward trend.(3)From the perspective of spatial differentiation,urban social-economic system vulnerability in Loess Plateau Region shows a pattern of high in the west and low in the east.The distribution of higher vulnerability region,low vulnerability region and lower vulnerability region is relatively stable.The higher vulnerability region is distributed in Hainan Tibetan autonomous prefecture and Huangnan Tibetan autonomous prefecture in Eastern Qinghai province.The low vulnerability region is concentrated in Guanzhong region and Jindong region.The lower vulnerability region is concentrated in provincial capital cities and resource-based cities of Ordos city,Baotou city,and Yan'an city.The distribution of high vulnerability region and medium vulnerability region is unstable.The high vulnerability region shifts from southern Inner Mongolia Autonomous region and northern Shaanxi province to southern Ningxia Hui Autonomous region and eastern Qinghai province,while the medium vulnerability region shifts from Longdong region and Longzhong region in Gansu province to the border of Shaanxi province and Shanxi province.(4)The hot spots analysis shows that the spatial agglomeration characteristics of urban social-economic system vulnerability in Loess Plateau Region indicate that the hot spots and cold spots are stably distributed on a certain topographic unit.The hot spots are stably distributed in the gully region of Loess Plateau Region.Cold spots are stably distributed in the eastern and southern valley plain areas and the eastern mountain areas.There are significant differences in the evolution characteristics of spatial agglomeration of sub-system vulnerability.The spatial agglomeration of social system vulnerability changes weakly and the spatial agglomeration pattern of economic system vulnerability changes sharply.(5)The OLS regression model and spatial regression model show that the exposure and adaptability capacity from the three criteria of vulnerability assessment are the main factors affecting urban socio-economic system vulnerability in Loess Plateau Region.The exposure indicators,such as industrial wastewater discharge,and the adaptability capacity indicators,such as medical treatment,investment in science and education,economic development level and environmental management,are the weak links of urban development in Loess Plateau Region.From the target level of vulnerability assessment,the influencing factors of urban social-economic system vulnerability in Loess Plateau Region have changed from economic factors,such as per capita GDP and comprehensively utilized rate of industrial solid waste,to social factors,such as the number of beds in hospitals and health centers owned by ten thousand people,the proportion of science and education expenditure in local governments expenditure.Except the comprehensively utilized rate of industrial solid waste belongs to the exposure,the other indicators belong to the adaptability capacity to characterize the sustainability of the future development of the system.In addition,from the externalmacro level,natural terrain units,national strategic planning and other factors on Loess Plateau Region of urban social-economic system vulnerability pattern shaping also has an important impact. |
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