Analysis Of Trade Potential And Trade Efficiency Of Countries Along The "Belt And Road"

"The Belt and Road"(B&R)initiative has been lasted for three years,which put forward in 2013.Now it has entered a golden period of development,to the pursuit of a higher level of global economic cooperation.The bilateral trade flow data in this paper is a collection of the 35 countries along "The Belt and Road" from 1995 to 2014.After getting the national trade efficiency and trade potential estimation,heterogeneous panel cointegration estimation methods(FMOLS and PDOLS)are used to analyze the influencing factors of trade efficiency and trade potential from three aspects:trade diversification,trade concentration and trade complementarity index.The lower the degree of trade diversification and the higher the degree of trade centralization are,the greater the potential of the country's trade is;the lower the degree of trade diversification and the higher the degree of trade centralization are,the more trade efficiency of the country is;for the bilateral trade volume,the higher the degree of trade complementarity between the two countries is,the greater the trade potential and trade efficiency between them is.The thesis is divided into two parts,the first part is the calculation of the bilateral trade efficiency and trade potential.In 1995-2014 years,"The Belt and Road along the country's overall trade potential decreased year by year until 2011,then it had a rebound after 2011.In addition,countries in Western Asia and North Africa have the biggest potential for trade,followed by Central Asia and European countries,and the last is the countries in Southeast Asia.On the other hand,the trade efficiency of the countries along "The Belt and Road" increased year by year.It shows that continuous importing of high technology and equipment,improvement of market environment and economic development result in the improvement of trade efficiency.In terms of regional distribution,trade efficiency is the opposite.Trade efficiency is the highest in Southeast Asian countries,followed by Central Asia and European countries,and finally the West Asian and North African countries.Their trade efficiency is much lower than the former two.The second part is the analysis of the factors of trade potential and trade efficiency for the countries along "The Belt and Road" based on heterogeneous panel cointegration.The results show that countries with low degree of diversification of trade products and high degree of concentration of trade market have greater trade potential.The government can increase the types and adjust the structure of export products by encouraging technological innovation.Besides,it can also bridge the gap between the actual trade volume and expected trade volume by strengthening the trade relationships and cooperation with other countries.The countries with low degree of diversification of trade products and high degree of concentration of trade market have more efficient trade.By reducing the dependence of domestic trade on a small number of products and trading partners,improving trade environment and actively exploring new trade markets,the countries can enhance the ability of exporting and improve the efficiency of export trade.As for bilateral trade,the higher the degree of trade complementarity between the two countries is,the greater the trade potential and trade efficiency between the two countries is.This shows that even for different trading partners,the country still needs to constantly explore its comparative advantages and competitive advantages,making the development of export trade more sustainable.