A Study On The Trade Complementarity And Trade Potential Between China And The Countries Along The Silk Road Economic Belt

This thesis mainly focuses on the field of Silk Road Economic Belt,and by measuring the trade complementarity between China and the countries along the Silk Road Economic Belt from 2002 to 2017,we find that the main characteristics of trade complementarity between China's exports and imports of the countries along the Silk Road Economic Belt in the three categories of products are that labor-intensive products have the highest complementarity,followed by capital-and technology-intensive products,and primary products are the least one.In terms of subdivided countries,China's trade complementarities in primary products with Armenia,Georgia,Kyrgyzstan,Pakistan,India,Ukraine,and Egypt began to be slightly higher,but then fluctuated to a lower level.The complementarities of the rest of the countries with China in primary products have been at a low level all the year round and do not fluctuate much;in capital-and technology-intensive products,China's trade with Algeria,Azerbaijan,France,Germany,Italy,Kazakhstan,Russia,Saudi Arabia,Turkey and the United Kingdom is highly complementary;in labor-intensive products,Armenia is the only country whose trade complementarities with China fluctuate between 2 and 3 all the year round.Countries that fluctuate between 1.5 and 2 are Algeria,Azerbaijan,France,Germany,Italy,Kazakhstan,Saudi Arabia and the United Kingdom.On the basis of the analysis of trade complementarity,we make a further empirical analysis of its influencing factors,and find that the level of infrastructure in the countries along the Silk Road Economic Belt has a positive impact on the trade complementarity of primary products between China and these countries,but the financial environment and the level of innovation and R & D have a negative impact.The level of foreign direct investment and innovation and R & D in the countries along the Silk Road Economic Belt have a negative impact on the trade complementarity of labor-intensive products between China and the countries along it.The level of innovation and R & D has a positive impact on the tradecomplementarity of capital and technology-intensive products between China and the countries along the Silk Road Economic Belt,while the adequacy of capital elements has a negative impact on it.In addition,we also use the stochastic frontier gravity model to analyze the trade efficiency and trade potential between China and the countries along the Silk Road Economic Belt,and discusses the depth and prospect of trade cooperation between China and these countries.The empirical results show that the overall trade efficiency of China to the countries along the Silk Road Economic Belt is in the upper middle level,but there is still a gap between the value and the highest value reached in recent years.It means that the trade efficiency between China and the countries along the Silk Road Economic Belt is likely to be further improved.In terms of subdivided countries,Britain and Germany are the most efficient and stable trading partners with China among these countries.Besides,Kyrgyzstan,Algeria,Russia,Saudi Arabia,India,Iran and Egypt also have higher trade efficiency with China;The less efficient countries with China are Azerbaijan,Turkmenistan,Georgia and Armenia.Combined with the analysis of trade complementarity and trade efficiency,it can be seen that most countries with high trade complementarity with China also have higher trade efficiency with China.Although Azerbaijan's trade with China is highly complementary in capital and technology-intensive products and labor-intensive products,its trade efficiency with China is low,indicating that the trade potential between China and Azerbaijan has not been fully unleashed.China should actively tap Azerbaijan's import demand and fulfill the trade potential with it.The analysis of trade inefficiency shows that the level of logistics,the level of infrastructure and the degree of trade facilitation are the important factors restricting the improvement of bilateral trade efficiency between China and the countries along the Silk Road Economic Belt.Based on the above analysis results,we also put forward some corresponding policy recommendations that are useful to promote economic and trade cooperation between China and the countries along the Silk Road Economic Belt.