Research On The Improvement And Application Of Z-value Model For Early Warning Of Enterprise Financial Crisis

Since the beginning of this century,with the integration of the global economy,China’s securities market has developed rapidly,especially in recent years,China’s listing conditions have been relaxed,leading to a growing number of listed companies.By reducing the threshold for the listing of enterprises,on the one hand,it has accelerated the development of China’s securities market,making the securities market appear a prosperous scene,but also allows companies to obtain more financing channels.However,on the other hand,the listing of companies will also face more fierce and brutal competition in the market and more market risks.At present,every year in China,some listed companies are forced to withdraw from the market due to poor financial conditions.In this study,such a delisted company is regarded as a company that has experienced a financial crisis.If a listed company enters a financial crisis,it will bring huge losses to shareholders,managers,and owners.Therefore,in order to avoid companies When it comes to financial crisis,it is very important to establish related enterprise financial early-warning models and continuously improve their forecasting capabilities.This article first divided the crisis early warning theory and early warning system related theories as the basis for the study of this paper;secondly,it takes the Shanghai stock A-stock ST company from 2014 to 2017 as the research object,from the analysis of key issues,the selection of independent variables and the analysis of function value ranges,etc.In this paper,the Z model of the listed company was improved,and the application of the Z model in the listed company was analyzed in terms of selection,introduction of early warning model design for other indicators,and construction of a secondary Logit regression model for introducing new indicators;Attention is paid to the application of the model,that is,attention should be paid to the contradiction between operability and economy,the contradiction between stability and dynamics,and clear selection criteria.Finally summarize the full text and put forward the outlook.Based on the analysis of domestic and foreign financial crisis warning theory,this paper adopts a combination of qualitative and quantitative analysis and a combination of theoretical and empirical analysis.It optimizes the financial crisis warning model for listed companies and expects to give financial support to listed companies in China’s industries.The optimization of crisis warning methods provides a certain reference.Specifically,the research content of this paper includes the following,the first part of the research content is an introduction,mainly focusing on the research background and significance,research content and research methods,innovation and other aspects;the second part of the research content is the literature review and The relevant theoretical basis mainly focuses on the literature review at home and abroad,crisis warning theory,system theory,principal-agent theory,financial crisis warning model analysis methods,etc.The third part of the research is the improvement of the Z-value model of financial crisis warning.The analysis mainly focuses on the analysis of key problems in model improvement,the selection of independent variable indicators for model improvement,and the analysis of function value ranges for model improvement;the fourth part of the research is the application of the Z value model for financial crisis early warning.Mainly around the sample selection,the introduction of early warning model set for other indicators,the construction of binary logit regression model to introduce new indicators,etc.The description of the fifth part of the study is the application of the financial crisis warning z value model attention issues,mainly around Pay attention to operability and economy Shield,pay attention to the stability and dynamics of the conflict,a clear selection criteria and other aspects of description;the sixth and before the full summary,the paper points out the shortcomings and put forward the prospects and ideas.