Research On Financial Crisis Early Warning Model Of Manufacturing Listed Companies In China Introduced Non-financial Information

With the economic globalization and the development of the information, Enterprises face more and more threats and challenges in China. Challenges and opportunities coexist. A smart person will deal with a problem before it germinates, and be worried about the future. So based on manufacturing industry listed companies as the research object, we select 131 manufacturing industry of ST companies and the corresponding 131 normal companies during the 2007-2014 years as samples. Then we will give three financial warning models in ST-3, ST-2 and ST-1, using the company's previous three years of data to predict the financial situation of enterprises, to find the distress as soon as possible, then to find out the measures and the ways to avoid the distress.First of all, this paper uses the 100 ST companies and 100 normal companies as sample estimation. Through the factor analysis measure to reduce the dimension of the data,we construct the logistic regression models, and then use the rest of the 31 ST companies and 31 normal company as prediction samples to test the model's accuracy. In ST-2, the model's accuracy reached 92%, and the prediction accuracy reached 83.8%. Obtained by three kinds of model comparison, we get conclusion as follows: on the one hand, with close to st age, non-financial indicators of the weight is getting smaller and smaller; on the other hand, with close to st age, model prediction accuracy should be higher and higher, but operation whitewash statements will fall the predictive ability of the model.The innovation of this paper is to use the listing Corporation for three consecutive years of data set up three models, and give the view that "statement of the operation will make the model prediction ability to fall back".