The Research Of Stage Pre-warning Model Against Financial Crisis On The Manufacturing Of Chniese Listed Company Based On Eva

Manufacturing is a primary industry in the national economy. However, because of the fierce competition in Chinese industry and the unenlightened methods of management which some manufacturing companies are using, the development of production and business of those manufacturing enterprises are being obstructed, and those companies are even facing bankruptcy. Therefore, it is necessary to establish a financial crisis pre-warning system with the manufacturing companies for samples. In most domestic or foreign studies of financial crisis pre-warning there is a tendency that the company's financial crisis occurred in a single year. However,according to the theory of the company's life cycle, a financial crisis is an gradual and obvious process of development which has many stages with different characteristic. Therefore, it is necessary to establish a financial crisis model which could identify the stages of the financial crisis. The effectiveness of the financial crisis pre-warning model lies in that the warning indexes can be advanced and sensitive enough to find the financial crisis faced by the enterprises timely and accurately. Owing to their limitations, traditional financial indexes which are used by most researchers at present can not satisfy that precondition well. As a new kind of index which can evaluate enterprises'achievement and loss, in an advanced and sensitive fashion, EVA satisfies that preconditon. Given the above understanding, this thesis builds the EVA-based stage pre-warning model for financial crisis on the manufacturing of Chinese listed company according to the theory on the company's life-cycle.This thesis falls into five parts; The first part introduces the background and purpose of this thesis, the present condition of the study of the financial crisis pre-warning, the EVA domestic and international, and the content and innovations of this thesis. The second part is the theoretical basis, including the theoretical basis of the financial crisis pre-warning, the definition of financial crisis stages, the theoretical basis of dividing financial crisis into 3 stages (which are the latency stage, the paroxysm stage and the outbreak stage), the main kinds of model of financial crisis pre-warning, the origin and development of the EVA, EVA's calculation method (which is used by the Stern Stewart company) and the EVA's calculation method used in this thesis. The third part is the empirical study of the stage warning model for financial crisis on the manufacturing Chinese listed company based on EVA. From a sample of Chinese manufacturing listed companies this part puts EVA into the index system of financial crisis prewarning, uses t-test or Wilcoxon sum of ranks test (to find financial indexes which exist significant difference in each year and to divide financial crisis into three stages in the quantitative way), and then does the correlated analysis and logistic regression analysis. This helps to establish the financial crisis pre-warning model in latency stage and the financial crisis pre-warning model in the paroxysm stage. These models are then tested, the results of which show that the models have good effect on prediction.The models are tested in the end of this part.The results of the test show that the models have good effect on prediction. The models are tested in the end of this part. The results of the test show that the models have good effect on prediction. The fourth part puts forward the overall countermeasures of the financial crisis and the countermeasures for each stages according to the basic characteristics of the each stage of the financial crisis in manufacturing listed company. The fifth part is the conclusion, pointing out the deficiency at present and the direction of the study in the future.