The Analysis On CPI In Yunnan Province

The consumer price index is an important component of the entire national economy.It can not only reflect the development of the entire country,the people's living standards,but also reflect the growth of the social economy.It can also measure the level of inflation in the society.Therefore,it is important to study the entire resident's consumption,both for the country and society.Based on the study of other researchers,this paper combines the characteristics of Yunnan Province with the selection of consumer price index(CPI),raw material purchase price index(MPI),industrial product ex-factory price index(PPI),and retail sales of goods(RPI).The four indices of index are used to analyze the influencing factors of consumer price index First,a single integer variable of the same order is selected,according to the preconditions of cointegration test.And a vector autoregressive model is established.According to the model's impulse response and variance decomposition,it is found that the consumer price index is sensitive to self-reflection and can predict changes in the short-term according to changes in itself.The impact of the purchase price index of raw materials is the smallest,and the impact of the index of the ex-factory price of industrial products is greatest,and the long-term promotion;In addition,the establishment of error correction model found that the retail price index of goods has a role in promoting the consumption of residents;and this article compares and analyzes the prediction effect of the model,and finds that the prediction effect of VAR is slightly better than the error correction model of this article.At last,we analyze consumer index in Yunnan Province,are described from fluctuations in household consumption,urban and rural differences,internal fluctuations of eight categories,and compared with the situation of the country,analyze the differences in Yunnan and the country.Finally,according to the analysis results of this paper,some suggestions are proposed to stabilize the price level.