| In recent years,as a pivotal point on the “New Silk Road Economic Belt”,Shaanxi Province has actively promoted the “Belt and Road Initiative”,which has clearly promoted the economic growth of Shaanxi Province and even the Northwest China,and has kept the province’s total import and export trade growth rate at the forefront of the country.Its development potential is huge and its development momentum is strong.This paper applies measurement methods to study the significant influencing factors of Shaanxi’s import and export trade volume,and conducts empirical analysis.Firstly,using correlation and unit root tests to screen out the variables that are equal to the order of Shaanxi Province’s import and export trade from 13 indicators is foreign economic cooperation to complete turnover and foreign exchange tourism income.Using the impulse response and variance decomposition in the VAR model,it was found that the foreign exchange revenue from tourism has a relatively small impact on the total volume of import and export trade,while foreign economic cooperation has a greater impact and long-term promotion.Then the cointegration test found that the variables contained at most two co-integration relations.Therefore,the use of the VECM model to reflect the short-term fluctuations deviating from the long-term equilibrium can be adjusted to the original level in the long-term stable relationship.In the established ECM model,it was also found that tourism foreign exchange income has a positive effect on the total volume of imports and exports,while foreign economic cooperation only has a promoting effect in the long run,and short-term elasticity shows a negative value.At the end of the thesis,the author compares and analyzes the forecasting effects of each model,and concludes that the VECM model has the best forecasting effect and provides reference suggestions on how to promote Shaanxi’s import and export trade,thus accelerating the economic development of Shaanxi Province. |
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