The Effect Of Deeper Integration On The Export Growth Of China-asean Agricultural Products

Market integration among regions will benefit the economies of different economies through effective allocation of resources,which is more significant for agricultural products trade.The China-ASEAN Free Trade Area(CAFTA),which is China's first free trade zone,was formally established in November 2001 and was basically completed in 2015.Since the establishment of the Free Trade Zone,the value of agricultural products exported from China to ASEAN has risen rapidly.In 2013,ASEAN has become the largest market of China's agricultural products export.It is accounting for more than 20% of China's total agricultural exports.So with the development and deepening of the CAFTA Agreement,China's agricultural exports have found a new source of growth.It has no longer depended on Japanese,Hong Kong,and EU agricultural products Markets.Then,what is the source of the growth in the value of agricultural products that China exports to ASEAN? Has the effect of CAFTA's establishment on China's growth path been the same or has it changed with the depth of integration? These issues are worth exploring.To answer the above questions,the new new trade theory,led by Melitz(2003),provides the basis for research.It decomposes the export into the intensive margin and the extensive margin,which can effectively expect the way of export growth.The intensive margin represents the growth of the export volume of the existing enterprises,and the extensive margin represents the growth of the export volume brought by the new enterprises.Intensive margin and extensive margin respectively measure the degree of specialization and diversification of exports.Therefore,this paper first uses both the re-expanded H-K measurement and the Amiti&Freund methods to measure binary margin of China-ASEAN agricultural product export growth.It is found that the agricultural product export growth is mainly driven by the intensive margin,and the extensive margin contributes the remaining part.Based on the two results of the extensive margin,it can be concluded that the main contribution of the expansive margin comes from the export growth of old agricultural products to new markets in ASEAN,while the export growth of new agricultural products has limit effect.This result shows that when the export of old products to the ASEAN is approaching saturation,the export growth will be slow.which fully demonstrates the fragility of China-ASEAN agricultural export growth.Then,this article uses the H-K method to measure binary margins of the value of agricultural products exported to ASEAN countries.We found that some of the old agricultural products started to be exported to the new markets like Vietnam and Thailand after the establishment of CAFTA,which greatly increased the export value of old agricultural products.Finally,this paper use STATA to establish a long-panel model that focuses on the impact of the depth of CAFTA integration on the binary margin.The empirical results show that different depths of integration do have different effects on the binary margin.The earlier integration has no significant effect on the intensive margin,but a significant positive impact on the extensive margin.And then with the deeper integration,it has a significant positive impact on not only intensive margin but also extensive margin,and the magnitude of the impact continues to increase.