Asymmetric Transmission Study Of Pork Price Volatilities In China

Pork is the most important meat consumer product of our country's residents,and it play a very significant role in our lives.The fluctuation of pork prices not only affects the level of residents consumption welfare,but also relates to the healthy and stable operation of the economy and society.However,in recent years,the price of pork in our country has fluctuate frequently,hurry up and slow down.It has fallen into a volatile cycle of price fluctuations in the “pig cycle” and has caused a very negative impact on China's economic operation and residents' lives.Therefore,it is necessary to conduct deeply research on the asymmetrical characteristics of pork price fluctuations in China.Based on the summarization of domestic and international studies on the asymmetrical conduct of pork price fluctuations,we use the existed research as a framework to explore the dynamic changes in asymmetrical conduction of pork price fluctuations on time,and introduces the latest research of spatial econometrics.This paper discusses the asymmetric conduction characteristics of pork price fluctuations from two dimensions of time and space,and further supplements and enriches existing price asymmetric conduction research theories with empirical methods.The results show that China's pork price fluctuations have asymmetric features of “easy to rise and difficult to down,rise more and down little,hurry up and slow down”.From the impact of pork prices on alternatives,cost prices,and macroeconomic factors,we find that the response of pork price to positive impact is greater than the response to negative impact.There is a asymmetric conduct of ratchet effect,and the ratchet effect is dynamic and structurally mutative in time,and more important,it has gradually increased in recent years.In the spatial factors,there is a spatial correlation between regional pork price fluctuations,and spatial factors affect pork prices from 0.8 to 0.9.When dynamic factors are considered,the impact level drops to 0.23.Under the influence of spatial effects,the impact of substitution,cost price and macroeconomic factors on the impact of pork price fluctuations and spatial effect values are all asymmetrical.Through the testing of different geographical distance thresholds,we find that among the indirect effects of alternatives,cost prices and macroeconomic factors have positive impact on pork price volatility,the positive effect is stronger than the negative effect,the conduction distance of positive effect is longer than negative.There is a spatial asymmetry in both the conduction strength and the conduction distance.With the expansion of spatial geography,the tends of spatial asymmetry has gradually increased.