Study On Chinese Pork Market Price Change Features And Integration Relation

In 2017,China's pork consumption accounted for about half of global pork consumption.Under the combined influence of increasingly stringent environmental protection policies,African swine fever and other factors,domestic pig stocks have dropped significantly in 2019,and pork prices have repeatedly hit record highs.The sharp increase in pork prices once led to a rapid increase in pork prices as a proportion of CPI,which in turn triggered concerns about inflation risks.In view of the important position of pork in Chinese meat consumption,its price fluctuations have also aroused widespread concern.Existing studies have not only conducted detailed and in-depth exploration of pork related issues from different angles for a long time,but this year's Central No.The restoration of relevant requirements for pig production has raised the issue of stable pork production and supply to a politically high level for the first time.Therefore,the analysis of the characteristics of pork price changes and market relations helps to understand the characteristics of market changes and stabilize the market,and has certain theoretical and practical significance.This paper analyzes the characteristics of pork price changes,analyzes the integration relationship of the pork market from the industrial chain(vertical)and spatial(horizontal),and the impact of pork prices on the macro economy.The research mainly uses time series and machine learning methods to analyze the characteristics of pork price changes from multiple dimensions.The research is mainly divided into the following 4 parts:The study first analyzed the characteristics of changes in the prices of piglets,live pigs and pork from three dimensions: long-term,mid-term and short-term.Long-term trend and breakpoint analysis results show that there is a time-varying upward trend in the prices of piglets,live pigs and pork in the three markets,and the price series trend changes are closely related to the breakpoints;the three price series breakpoints are basically consistent at the price At the turning point.The results of the mid-term cycle analysis show that the cycle lengths of the three price series are concentrated in 3 to 6,7 to 12 and36 to 60 months,and the level of seasonality is low.Emergencies such as African swine fever will cause the emergence of three markets Such periodic changes.The results of short-term random fluctuation analysis show that the three market price series fluctuations are closely related to periodic changes.Price fluctuations gradually decrease during the expansion phase of the pig cycle;on the contrary,they gradually increase during the contraction phase.The study analyzes the vertical integration relationship between the piglet,live pig and pork markets from the perspective of the industrial chain,and the results show that the three markets have an integrated relationship in the long,medium and short term.From a long-term perspective,there is a co-integration relationship between price changes and a Granger causality relationship between market prices.The impulse response results of the three markets indicate that the long-term integration relationship between the three markets has not changed in the past 20 years.The integration relationship has a strong spillover effect between markets,and the positive effect is greater than the negative effect.From the mid-term perspective,the three market price series cycles are consistent,not only the difference has a positive correlation,but the dynamic amplitude of the cycle also has a co-integration relationship.In the short term,the three market price fluctuations have positive spillover effects.The research analyzes the horizontal(spatial)integration of pork markets in China's major provinces and cities from the perspective of regional market price relationships.The results show that due to the influence of industrial layout,the pork markets of major provinces and cities have a highly integrated relationship.Based on the results of the network Granger causality test,it shows that there is a complex Granger network in pork prices in major provinces and cities,and there are mutual influences between market prices.From the intersection of networks under different frequencies,there are only five identical Granger causality in a two-way network,and no Granger causality in a unidirectional network.From the perspective of network differences,the two-way network of pork prices in various provinces and cities is more stable,and the one-way Granger causality network is more diverse.The results of the study on the linkage effect of volatility show that there is a strong positive correlation and two-way linkage effect between major provinces and cities across the country,that is,the time of occurrence of unexpected market volatility is simultaneous and the impact is mutual.The result of the consistency of the price bubble shows that the time of the domestic pork market price bubble is highly consistent.The study finally analyzed the impact of pork market changes on CPI and predicted the trend of pork price changes.The results show that there is a co-integration relationship between pork price and CPI,and the impact on CPI is significant,and the positive effect is greater than the negative effect,that is,the increase in pork price has a greater impact on CPI.The study used machine learning methods to predict pork prices.The prediction results show that pork prices will have a turning point in the pig cycle from the end of 2020 to 2021,that is,pork prices will show a downward trend in the next two years.The main innovations of the research are: innovation in research perspectives,analyzing the integration of pork market from the perspective of time series characteristics analysis,considering the characteristics of pork price changes from the perspective of dynamic and time-varying parameters;innovation in research methods,mainly using machine learning methods,EDM breakpoint identification,volatility linkage effects,deep learning methods,etc.,and combined use or appropriate modification of these methods according to research needs,effectively improving the accuracy of analysis and forecasting;innovative research content,a comprehensive description of the pork market vertical The relationship with horizontal(spatial)integration provides a scientific decision-making basis for stabilizing the pork market.