An Empirical Study On The Efficiency Of Local Debt Output

In 2008,China implemented a 4 trillion-investment plan to mitigate the impact of the global financial crisis on the domestic economy.In order to complete the instruction issued by the central government and maintain economic growth,China began issuing local government bonds in 2009.In the past two years,the issuance of debt has expanded rapidly.Since then,local debt has surged,and the debt of local financing platforms has increased rapidly.By the end of 2015,the balance of local government debt has reached 16 trillion yuan,while in 2015,the national fiscal revenue was 15.4 trillion yuan,and the local debt ratio has exceeded 100%.Local government debt problem has become increasingly prominent and has become the focus of controversy: whether the local government has sufficient funds to repay existing debt,whether the huge local government debt has been at risk;whether the size of government debt is sustained and will have a positive effect on regional economic development...Trace to its cause,whether the government debt is implemented rationally,whether local debt is implemented in a reasonable way,whether the corresponding effects will lead to development and bring positive effects to the development of regional economy is our concern.At present,China's research on local debt tends to focus on its causes,scale,structure,risks,existing problems and countermeasures,ignoring the impact of local debt on the cornerstone of superstructure,that is,the impact of economic output efficiency.In addition to the audit report of the Audit Commission can let the public see only a small part,the local government seldom or never opens the data of the debt problem.Therefore,few studies on the relationship between local debt and economic growth use some indicators as alternative variables of local debt,such as fiscal gap,local debt size and so on.Because of that,based on the three times audit results of local debt and the interest bearing debt of city investment company,we try to empirically analyze the relationship between local debt structure and local economic growth.We hope to get some useful conclusions about the relationship between local debt and local economic output in China.In reference to relevant literature at home and abroad,including Keynes' s theory of government bonds,the negative effect of Adam Simy,this paper uses the three stage DEA method to eliminate the influence of the economic environment and random error,we calculate the score of GDP output efficiency of each province in the sample observation period,and make a comprehensive analysis of the debt output level.According to the empirical analysis,the ratio of local debt generally determines the efficiency of economic output.Local debt has a more significant role in promoting economic output in economically developed areas.The expansion of local debt under the economic crisis does promote the growth of the economy.Finally,summarizing the main conclusions of the above studies,the article suggests that we should rationally distribute the scale of local debt according to the level of economic development,adjust industrial structure,improve the tax system in the financial system,strengthen the supervision of debt and build a scientific and technological city.