| Since the outbreak of the US subprime mortgage crisis in 2008,the Chinese government has begun to implement the “four trillion” economic plan as a means of responding to the subprime crisis and stabilizing the economy.But it has stimulated the expansion of regional local debt and has become an important factor affecting regional economic development.Although the expansion of local debt has guaranteed the temporary stability and growth of the Chinese economy to a certain extent.But the emergence of local financing platforms and the sharp increase in local debt also create potential economic risks.Previous studies on local debt to regional economic development have focused on economic growth,and it is generally believed that moderate local debt has a positive effect on regional economic growth,while excess is the opposite.However,it ignores the impact of local debt on the quality of regional economic development.Under the circumstance that China's economy has changed from a high-speed growth stage to a high-quality development stage,it is obviously more practical and policy value to study the quality of economic development.Therefore,this dissertation takes the effect of local debt on the quality of regional economic development as the study content.Try to reveal the mechanism of the effect of local debt on the quality of regional economic development.Provide policy recommendations for regulating and effectively managing local debts.The content of this dissertation is as follows:In theoretical aspects,this dissertation sorts out the relevant literature on local debt,economic development,economic development quality and high-quality development,and summarizes the limitations of research and strengthens the academic value of this research.In the theoretical analysis and mechanism research,the two-sector model of infinite life cycle into local debt is constructed based on RBC model and Ramsey endogenous growth two-sector model.The effects of local debt on quality of economic development index TFP and total household utility are studied.The analytical solution of the computational model TFP is derived by static analysis.Then the deterministic recursive method is used to construct the Bellman equation for numerical simulation to analyze the impact of local debt on the total household utility.Then,based on the high-quality development concept,the quality of economic development is dimensionally decomposed into four aspects: economic production efficiency,industrial structure upgrading,innovation capability level and factor allocation efficiency.Then the influence and mechanism of local debt is studied on these four dimensions,and obtain the theoretical hypothesis of this dissertation.In the empirical aspect,firstly,through the two-way fixed effect model,the effect of local debt on the quality of regional economic development is examined.From the indicators of economic production efficiency,industrial structure upgrading,innovation capability level and factor allocation efficiency,the high-quality development level of regional economy is described from multiple dimensions to test the impact of local bond issuance on the above-mentioned agency indicators;secondly,the following robustness test is carried out: First,using instrumental variable method to alleviate potential endogeneous problems;Methods such as PSM,PSM-DID and time window width perform robustness verification.Third,this dissertation effectively identifies the channels through which local debt affects the quality of regional economic development.Finally,considering the differences in economic,social and cultural aspects among cities in China,the effect of local debt on the quality of regional economic development may vary among different prefecturelevel cities.Therefore,based on the heterogeneity of people,finance and land,this dissertation empirically tests the effect of local debt on the quality of regional economic development.In summary,the conclusions of this dissertation are as follows:First,based on the policy content of high-quality development concepts and related research,this dissertation divides the quality of economic development into four dimensions: economic production efficiency,industrial structure upgrading,innovation capability level and factor allocation efficiency.Second,local debt has curbed regional economic production efficiency by reducing investment efficiency.Since the investment behavior of local governments through debt is a non-market investment,it will inevitably lead to low investment efficiency and the inability to optimally allocate capital.At the same time,the local government officials have stood out in the “official promotion tournament”.Therefore,local debt investment has shortsighted behaviors that pursue high-speed growth of the regional economy regardless of the quality of development,thus further reducing investment efficiency.At the same time,due to the local government's debt issuance behavior,“marketing out” high-efficiency private social investment has once again worsened investment efficiency,thus hindering regional economic production efficiency.Therefore,this paper believes that local debt inhibits regional economic production efficiency by reducing investment efficiency.Third,local debt has inhibited the regional industrial structure upgrading by reducing investment efficiency and raising land prices.Due to the increase in the scale of local debt,the government-led non-market-based basic investment has expanded,and indirectly “squeezed out” market-oriented private social investment,thereby reducing regional investment efficiency,thereby distorting the regional industrial structure,thus hindering the upgrade of regional industrial structure.At the same time,the research shows that local debt and regional land price have two-way promotion.On one hand,the increase of regional land price can enhance the local government's financing repayment ability through land leasing,land mortgage and land transfer,thus expanding the issuance scale of local bonds.On the other hand,since local governments generally obtain funds to repay local debt through land transfer,local governments also have incentives to increase the level of public facilities through basic investment and thus push up land prices.Obviously,excessive land prices have a significant inhibitory effect on industrial structure upgrading.Therefore,this paper argues that local debt has inhibited the regional industrial structure upgrading by reducing investment efficiency and raising land prices.Fourth,local debt has promoted the level of regional innovation capability level by increasing investment in the education industry.Since the education industry is an important area for local debt investment,increasing investment in the education industry will not only improve the regional per capita education period,but also improve the regional human capital level,and also maintain the stability of regional human capital levels.At the same time,the level of human capital is the key driving force for innovation.Therefore,local debt has promoted the regional innovation capability level by increasing investment in education industry.Fifth,local debt has suppressed the regional innovation capability level by reducing the scale and efficiency of investment in science and technology innovation industries.Since local debt funds are generally invested in supporting local government fiscal expenditures,local debts are mainly for public facilities and basic industries in the field of people's livelihood,thus occupying the scale of investment in local science and technology expenditures for science and technology innovation industries.At the same time,local debt has “marketing out”efficient private social investment,thereby reducing investment in innovative industries with long-term development efficiency,which has worsened the level of regional innovation capability.Therefore,local debt has suppressed the regional innovation capability level by reducing the scale and efficiency of investment in science and technology innovation industries.Sixth,local debt has reduced the regional factor allocation efficiency.Similarly,because local debt has expanded the government-led non-marketing and inefficient basic investment,“squeezing out” market-oriented and efficient private social investment will inevitably distort market investment allocation and thus distort the efficiency and configuration of factor markets.Therefore,local debt reduces the regional factor allocation efficiency.Seventh,the paper finally discusses the heterogeneity problem.Under the heterogeneity of people,the higher the promotion incentives of local government officials,the greater the impact of local debt on the quality of regional economic development.Under financial heterogeneity,the greater the degree of fiscal freedom,the smaller the size of the government and the smaller the financial scale,the stronger the suppression of local debt on the quality of regional economic development.Under the heterogeneity of the land,cities with higher development and higher housing prices have a stronger role in suppressing the quality of regional economic development.In summary,this dissertation,not only theoretically fills the gaps in research in related fields,but also contributes to the transformation of China's economic structure and basis China with realistic policy recommendations for the path of sustainable development in the context of the “new normal” of the economy. |
PDF Full Text Request