Research On The Dual Edge Of China's Service Trade Export Growth And Its Influencing Factors

With the increasingly complex and volatile international economic situation,exports of goods that are centered on manufacturing industries are facing setbacks.China's opening up to the outside world is in urgent need of upgrading.At the same time,service trade has brought good development opportunities.To a certain extent,the increase in service trade has made up for the decline in the export of goods.Service trade is becoming a breakthrough point for China to break away from its current foreign trade situation.Service trade will play an important and positive role in expanding opening up to the outside world,transforming China's existing economic development model,and balancing China's foreign trade.Looking at the total amount,the overall scale of service trade has continued to expand,but the deficit has continued to increase.In 2016,the import and export of China's service trade maintained a good momentum.The total import and export amounted to 5.4 trillion yuan.For the first time,it exceeded the threshold of 5 trillion yuan,ranking second in the world and 2% over the same period of last year.Specifically,exports of advertising and maintenance services increased by 48% and 47% respectively,and the increase in financial service exports doubled;the agglomeration effect in China's pilot regions was very obvious,and the growth rate in most of the pilot regions exceeded20%;the United States became the largest service in China.The source of the trade deficit.In addition,new business models and new technologies have emerged in the outsourcing field of service trade in China,and now China has become the world's second largest undertaker of outsourcing services.Although the development of China's trade in services has achieved satisfactory results,the characteristics of global economic services have become more pronounced,and countries have generally expanded their services to the outside world.China's service trade still suffers from long-term deficits,unbalanced trade structures,and weak international competitiveness.Based on the above background,based on the analysis of the relevant literature of the new and new trade theory,this article focuses on the analysis of literature related to service trade theory and related literature on the dual marginal theory,and collects service trade data between China and 42 countries from 2003 to 2013.From the multilateral level and the bilateral level,we analyze the export structure of China's service trade into the margins of the intensive accumulation of technical quantities and the margins of the types,and use measurement software to analyze the factors influencing the binary margin of the export of service trade in China.This paper finds that at present,the growth of China's export of service trade at the bilateral level and at the multilateral level is achieved through the intensive marginalization of the number of technologies,and the proportion of margin expansion of types has gradually become smaller.When analyzing the factors influencing the binary margin of China's service trade exports,this paper finds that the economic scale is positively correlated with the quantitative margins of intensive technology and species expansion in China,and the trade cost is negatively correlated with the quantification margin of the quantitative technology and the extended boundary of the species in China.Other factors have different effects on different margins.After the introduction of the dummy variable SHOCK,it was found that the impact of external impact on the intensive margin of quantitative technology is greater than the extension margin of the species.