Deviation Measure Of Market Value Of Manufacturing Listed Companies From Their Internal Value

The intrinsic value of listed companies has always been the focus of attention in finance,economics and accounting.In a perfect market,the market value of listed companies should be based on their intrinsic value,fluctuating around intrinsic value,and not in a state of excessive deviations over a long period of time.A slight degree of deviation does not necessarily cause the market to fluctuate violently,but if the market value of listed companies deviates from its intrinsic value greatly,it will inevitably lead to a large stock market.This is not only unfavorable to rational investment of investors,but also unfavorable to the stable development of listed companies,and at the same time,it is also unfavorable to the stability of financial market and the coordinated development of national economy.The manufacturing industry is related to the national economy and people's livelihood.It plays an extremely important role in the steady development of China's economy as a whole.Therefore,starting from the manufacturing industry,this paper studies the intrinsic value of the manufacturing listed companies and the deviation of their market value from the intrinsic value.This paper first introduces the relevant core concepts and several mainstream valuation models.Based on the basic framework of the theory of residual income valuation,the intrinsic value of an enterprise depends on the net assets yield,capital cost,dividend ratio and investor forecast period.Drawing on the improvement and amendment of Chinese scholars to the model,assuming that investors can only predict the limited period,this paper uses the improved F-O model to calculate the deviation of intrinsic value,share price and intrinsic value from the financial statement data and stock price data of 1843 listed companies of A share manufacturing industry in China from 2007 to 2017.The results show that from 2012 to 2017,the intrinsic value of China's A share manufacturing listed companies showed a decreasing trend,which was consistent with the residual income theory.With the increasing number of companies,the residual income of listed companies showed a decreasing trend.The deviation of market value to their intrinsic value increased year by year from 2012 to2015,and reached a secondary peak in 2015,and a slight decrease in 2016,and then201.When the stock market was at a low level in 2012,the market value of China's manufacturing listed companies deviated from its intrinsic value slightly.In 2015 and2017,when the stock market was at its peak,the deviation of the listed companies was large,and there was a clear bubble component.Investors should be vigilant,andthe risk of their share price fall was greater.The trend of the bubble degree was similar to that of the deviation,and the relative extent was relatively similar.7.Smaller.Secondly,sensitivity analysis is carried out for different parameters that affect intrinsic value to determine the impact of changes on intrinsic value.The results show that the impact of net asset return on intrinsic value far exceeds other variables.If we want to increase the intrinsic value of enterprises,we need to further enhance the company's profitability.In addition,this paper divides the manufacturing listed companies according to scale,ownership structure and R & D input to observe the internal value of different types of listed companies and the degree of deviation of stock price from intrinsic value.The study found that larger companies have smaller deviations and smaller shocks.When the listed companies are in the stage of growth,they can give full play to the channel advantage and decision-making speed of large shareholders.The highly centralized ownership mode has higher intrinsic value and smaller deviation,while in the mature stage,the decentralization of share rights can exert the incentive effect of equity management,and the higher the intrinsic value,the greater the deviation.For a manufacturing enterprise with a strong life cycle,a simple high R & D investment will not bring about the growth of excess returns and the reduction of deviation in the short run.Finally,this paper puts forward several suggestions for listed companies,regulators and investors.