Research On The Mixed Frequency Prediction Of Copper Futures Price On China's GDP

With China's economy entering a transitional period,it is of great significance to predict the growth rate of GDP more accurately.On the one hand,it can help policy makers to stabilize the economy and achieve policy objectives.On the other hand,the forecast value of the growth rate of GDP also affects all sectors of the national economy.The trend of economic forecast is good for the economic development.It plays an important role in promoting market economy,strengthening public confidence and injecting vitality into the market economy.However,the prediction method and accuracy of GDP growth rate need to be improved.When using the traditional frequency model to predict the GDP growth rate,because of the different frequency of the data,the problem of information loss or virtual increase will be generated,and the accuracy of the result will be weakened.Therefore,using the mixed data processing model to predict the growth rate of GDP can preserve the integrity of data and improve the accuracy of prediction results.Specifically,based on the modeling theory of the mixing data processing model MIDAS,the monthly copper price data and the quarterly GDP data from 1995 to 2017 are selected to construct the mixing data processing model based on the monthly copper price growth rate and the quarterly GDP growth rate in China.The study found that copper and GDP have a close relationship.Copper has finally affected the growth of GDP through the influence of various industries in the three major industries of GDP.The empirical result also shows that the copper price growth rate is the Granger reason for the GDP growth rate.Finally,through modeling analysis,the optimal model of quarterly GDP data is obtained based on monthly copper price data.At the same time,compared with the results of the same frequency data processing model,the results show that the mixed data processing model MIDAS is superior in prediction accuracy.Therefore,the seasonal growth rate of copper prices can be used to predict the quarterly GDP growth rate,with timeliness and accuracy.