Research On The Relationship Between China's Business Cycle And Industrial Development Cycle

The cyclical fluctuation of economy is an important part of macroeconomic research,in the process of research on the problems of the economic cycle,the research methods and research directions are diversified.From the national economic cycle and its impact on the various factors to the study of regional economic cycle characteristics and so on,all reflect the diversity of its development and changes.This article starts from China's economic cycle and explores the development cycle of the three major industries in our country,and then finds the link between China's economic cycle and the three major industrial cycles and provides some guidance for macroeconomic policy.Based on the data of real growth rate of China's GDP from1979 to 2016 and the real growth rate of three industries,the article studies the relationship between China's economic cycle and industrial development cycle by using the Markov Regime-switching Model.First of all,the article used the nominal value of GDP data by choosing the prices in 1978 as the reference to get the actual value of GDP,and then calculate the real GDP growth rate of each industry cycle;Second,the paper chose 1994 as the structural transition point,using additional transformation point of MS model on China's macroeconomic cycle as well as the three industry development cycle for the identification of dynamic change.The results showed that in the development of China's economy,the industrial growth rate appeared the "rapid growth stage " and "slow growth stage",then analyzed the result of the article;Then on the base of the synergistic effect between China's economic cycle and three industrial cycle,we found that the second industrial cycle is of the highest coordination degree with macroeconomic cycle,moreover,before and after the transition point,the synergy degree are obviously different.Therefore,it is concluded that the state can adjust and control the operation of the whole macroeconomic system by using different characteristics of economic cycle.The macroeconomic cycle and industrial development cycle of the synergy degree are obviously different.The development of three industries also showed an imbalance from each other.With the highest coincidence with the macroeconomic cycle after the structural transition,the secondary industry has also encountered abottleneck,which caused reflections on the reform of economic system and industrial structure.