Measurement And Reserch Of Influencing Factors Of Enterprise Credit Risk In China NEEQ Market

The NEEQ provides financing channels for China's innovative,entrepreneurial and growth-oriented small and medium-sized enterprises,enhances their independent innovation capabilities,and promotes the development of China's multi-level capital markets.However,because of the small scale of operation,unsound system,low credit rating and information asymmetry,the NEEQ enterprises are vulnerable to external macroeconomic environment and market environment,unable to obtain timely financial support,and increase the credit risk faced by enterprises.In the context of increasingly close global economic integration,if the business management problems of enterprises are not effectively solved,they will easily generate credit risks.If credit risks are not controlled in time,they may spread to the industry and induce a "butterfly effect".The phenomenon is particularly prominent in the the NEEQ market,so it is necessary to study the credit risk of the the NEEQ enterprises.This paper takes the NEEQ enterprises as a sample to study and analyze the credit risk of enterprises.Because the NEEQ enterprises are non-listed SMEs,it is impossible to distinguish risky enterprises from normal enterprises with clear indicators.Therefore,it 1s first necessary to judge the credit risk of the NEEQ enterprises.PFM theory believes that listed companies with similar scale and profitability have certain relevance to non-listed companies.By comparing various risk assessment models,it is found that SVM model is the most applicable in the risk assessment of non-listed enterprises in China.Therefore,SME boards are used.The listed ST companies and non-ST companies are training samples,and the SVM model is fitted to measure and judge the credit risk of the NEEQ enterprises.Then,based on this,the logistic regression model is constructed by using the judged credit risk enterprises and normal enterprises as the sample,from the micro level of the company's solvency,profitability,operational ability and growth ability,as well as the consumer price index and the business climate index.At the macro level,such as the money supply,it analyzes the influencing factors of corporate credit risk,and provides effective help and advice to operators based on the empirical results to help operators make correct decisions.The research results show that the NEEQ enterprises have certain credit risks in the development process.There are 284 enterprises that can meet the credit risk conditions through the SVM model,accounting for 11.49%of the total sample.The credit risk of the NEEQ enterprises is affected by both internal business conditions and external macroeconomic fluctuations.Based on internal factors of the enterprise,the financial management ability of corporate debt repayment,profit,operation and growth is negatively correlated with the credit risk of the enterprise;based on extermal macroeconomic factors,the CPI index is positively correlated with the credit risk of the enterprise,and the business climate index and money supply.It is negatively related to the credit risk of the enterprise.Therefore,the operator can improve the financial management ability of the enterprise and pay attention to the changes of the macro policy.Choosing a suitable development strategy can help the enterprise to reduce the credit risk.