Research On The Influencing Factors And Potential Of Agricultural Products Trade Between China And South Asia

Since ancient times,China and South Asia have had close economic and trade exchanges through the Tea-horse Ancient Road,in the meanwhile,agricultural products trade has always been an important development area of bilateral economic and trade cooperation.In the new era,along with the proposal and comprehensive implementation of “the Belt and Road” initiative,the importance of South Asia has become increasingly prominent,and the development of agricultural products trade between China and South Asia has ushered in new opportunities and platforms.Therefore,analyzing the current situation and basic characteristics of agricultural products trade between China and South Asia,and on this basis,researching the influencing factors and potential of agricultural products trade between China and South Asia,is of great,profound and lasting significance to further reinforce the international cooperation in agriculture with countries along “the Belt and Road” and upgrade the development level of agricultural products trade between China and South Asia.To start with,based on the trade data from 2000 to 2017,this dissertation makes an explicit and in-depth analysis on the status quo and basic characteristics of agricultural products trade between China and South Asia in the light of the logic thinking of “trade scale,product structure,market structure and competitiveness”.The results show that: the agricultural products trade connections between China and South Asia are increasingly close,China's export growth rate gradually surpasses the import growth rate,and the trade deficit is shrinking,then China has developed from a deficit state to a surplus state in bilateral agricultural products trade.Agricultural products trade structure is highly concentrated and market distribution is unbalanced.The trade competitiveness of China's agricultural products in the South Asian market is weak,but it has been strengthened and its competitive advantage has improved.In the next place,by using the CMS model,this dissertation makes an empirical analysis of the factors affecting the agricultural products trade between China and South Asia at different levels,and quantifies the extent of each factor's influence on the growth of bilateral agricultural products trade and its changing trend.The results show that: the expansion of import demand for agricultural products in South Asia is the primary factor for China's export growth,export commodity effect constitutes a hindrance,and the general competitive effect of export gradually replaces the growth effect as the dominant factor affecting the growth of China's agricultural products export.Pure second-order effect is the decisive factor to promote the growth of China's agricultural products import from South Asia,followed by growth effect.Then based on the original meanings of Tinbergen's and Poyhonen's trade gravity models,this dissertation screens out its variables and constructs an extended trade gravity model.By using this model,it empirically studies the important factors affecting the trade flow of agricultural products between China and South Asia,and on this basis,estimates the potential of agricultural products trade between China and South Asian countries.The results show that: economic scale of both sides,exchange rate level and WTO trade system arrangements have a significant positive impact on agricultural products trade flow between China and South Asia,while geographical distance and per capita income differences have a significant inhibitory effect on agricultural products trade flow between China and South Asia.Agricultural products trade between China and South Asian countries still has great development space and potential.Among them,the agricultural products trade of China with countries like Pakistan and Sri Lanka belongs to potential reshaping type,that with Afghanistan belongs to potential pioneering type,and that with India,Bangladesh,Maldives and Nepal belongs to huge potential type.Finally,on the basis of the conclusions through the full-text research,it puts forward some countermeasures to promote the sustainable and stable development of agricultural products trade between China and South Asia: accurately grasping the market demand of South Asia and optimizing the export structure of agricultural products.Cultivating industrial competitive advantage and improving the export competitiveness of agricultural products through various ways.Promoting diversification of market structure and implementing differentiated trade strategy.Implementing infrastructure construction and reducing the cost of agricultural products trade.Exploring the mode of regional economic cooperation and promoting the construction of Free Trade Area.