The Growth And Trade Potential Of China's Agricultural Products Export To BRICS

Since the 21 st century, China's economic and trade exchanges with other BRICS countries have become increasingly close, the trade relations have been warming rapidly and bilateral trade scale continues to expand. The BRICS are both the big agricultural countries in the world. So the trade of agricultural products plays an important role in the trade cooperation and development of the BRICS. Therefore, with the gradual deepening of the open degree and the cooperation mechanisms of the BRICS, agricultural trade between China and the other BRICS countries also showed a rapid growth trend. But it is worth noting that the development of agricultural trade between the BRICS is not balanced. Compared with other BRICS countries, China's export trade of agricultural products increased obviously behind the growth of its imports, leading to China's agricultural trade deficit with other BRICS countries expanded year after year. Obviously, China has always been in a very disadvantageous position in the development of agricultural products export trade of the whole BRICS.Therefore, this paper based on the current status of China's agricultural products export trade to BRICS, using a combination of theoretical analysis and empirical analysis method, makes a comprehensive analysis on the growth cause and influence factors as well as trade potential of China's agricultural products exports to BRICS. And it aims to provide effective guidance for narrowing the trade deficit, increasing the share of exports to BRICS and promoting China's export trade of agricultural products sustained and stable growth. The main contents of this paper are as follows: firstly, the thesis concretely studies the China's agricultural products export trade status and changing trend to BRICS by selecting trade data in 2000-2014 and using the analysis thought of "total-structure". Then, with the modified CMS model, the thesis makes staged decomposition of the influence factors of export dynamic growth of China's agricultural products toward BRICS. Subsequently, this thesis discusses other important factors affecting the trade flows of China's agricultural products export to BRICS and calculates the trade potential in details by constructing the trade gravity model. Finally, based on the comprehensive research conclusion, this paper puts forward relevant countermeasures and suggestions to promote the healthy and sustainable development of the export trade of China's agricultural products.The results show that:(1) in recent years, China's exports of agricultural products to the BRICS continue to grow, but also the trade deficit expanded rapidly. Agricultural products export trade structure is not reasonable, export products are highly concentrated, and market distribution is not balanced.(2) The cause of China's agricultural products exports growth to the BRICS is from three aspects: the import demand effect, trade structure effect and competitive effect. The import demand effect plays a dominant role, followed by the competitive effect, and trade structure effect is relatively weak.(3) Import and export country's economies of scale, APEC and WTO trade arrangements have significantly positive effects on China's agricultural products exports trade flow, and import and export country's population and spatial distance have a significant negative impact. China agricultural products remain a greater export potential in India and Russia, but a limited export potential in Brazil and South Africa. Therefore, based on the above research conclusion, the thesis put forward the following points of view: to promote good and fast development of China's agricultural products trade to the BRICS, we must cultivate the competitive advantage of the agricultural industry as the core, and continuously improve the export competitiveness of agricultural products. We should be oriented towards the BRICS import demand, and gradually optimize export products structure and export market structure of the agricultural products, to further reduce the risk of export trade. At the same time, the government should take trade promotion measures to export enterprises, and carry out regional economic and trade cooperation actively to promote the construction of Free Trade Area. Besides, the govenment should increase policy support, and perfect the system of laws and regulations, and strengthen quality management.