The Leverage Of Local Government,real Estate Prices And Economic Growth

At present,China's economy into the structure transformation,growth is slowing,Energy conversion in the new period,at the same time our country macro economic leverage is high,the debt burden overweight problem increasingly prominent.The amount of leverage existing in our country and all departments leverage vary more structural problems,structure is the problem we focus on the core of the current problems.Therefore,this article focused on the leverage of local government,through the local government leverage lever and the transmission mechanism between property prices and economic growth theory and empirical effect,helps to further enrich the economic leverage and asset prices and the understanding of the influence mechanism between economic growth,provide theoretical and empirical support for the scientific lever controls.This article first to introduce the research background and significance,at the same time involved in defining and some important concepts,and the economic leverage,leverage ratio,economic growth of local government,real estate price and land financial variables between generalizes the existing literature research.Then,this paper further clarify the leverage cycle theory and asset price effects between theoretical basis,analysis the leverage and real estate prices and economic growth of local government influence mechanism between the three economic variables laid a theoretical foundation for empirical analysis.Then,this article selects 2010-2016 annual panel data of 30 provinces,cities and autonomous regions throughout the country to calm base,and according to the discretion of the local government leverage is divided into two panels,through the bidirectional fixed effects estimation,PVAR model is set up to local governments leverage,land,finance,real estate prices and the relationship between economic growth and the effect has carried on the empirical analysis.Then,based on the real estate price and the Angle of regional heterogeneity of land revenue structure has carried on the grouping,further analyze the relationship between the three.The empirical results show that:(1)the lower leverage areas of local government on the real estate market has great have booster effect,high leverage of local government area of real estate market still has a role,but less than the government leverage lower region.(2)local governments leverage lower region have a lasting impact on economic growth,and this effect is greater than the high leverage of local government areas.(3)areas of local government in the real estate prices are higher leverage and growth effect is remarkable.Real estate prices to local government leverage low region higher than the local government the leverage ratio.Similarly,real estate prices also has a great influence on economic growth but less than the local government leverage effect on economic growth.(4)land in our country finance income of different areas,three effects between economic variables is not the same.Finally,in this paper,considering the regional differences and policy maneuverability,from the control of local government debt scale,steady economic growth,control asset prices from several aspects,such as policy Suggestions are given.