Research On The Relationship Between The Leverage Ratio Of The Residential Sector,House Prices And Financial Stability

From the fifth plenary session of the 18th central committee of the communist party of China in October 2015 to the "structural deleveraging" proposed by the central financial and economic commission in April 2018,the level and structure of China's leverage ratio have received high attention.Among residential sector leverage leverage levels although residents in China department is still in the acceptable range,but real estate to inventory policy since 2015,our country residents sector leverage growth too fast,people focus on the housing mortgage debt,not only can increase the risk of concentration,and the rapid growth of the housing mortgage loan and real estate market overheating is easily to form a housing bubble and produces crowding out to other residents consumption demand,so for residents sector leverage regulation need to attach great importance to.At first,this paper from a more comprehensive measure sector debt and leverage,select monthly data from 2006 to 2017,department of residents in our country by comparing the absolute numerical leverage with other countries and economies,growth speed,structure,analysis of our country resident current situation,the department leverage levels and combined with the actual situation in our country,analysis our country residents sector leverage increases the risk profile.At present,the leverage ratio of Chinese residents is still lower than the world average level,but the growth rate is too fast,and the structural problems are obvious.Secondly,through theoretical model analysis and historical experience,the relationship between the leverage ratio of the residential sector and the real estate price and financial stability is analyzed.The increase of the leverage ratio of the residential sector will lead to the increase of the real estate price and affect the financial stability.Thirdly,according to the connotation of financial stability,the monthly data of nine indicators from 2006 to 2017 were selected,and the financial stability indicators were constructed by using the principal component analysis method to describe the financial stability of China from 2006 to 2017.In addition,by constructing the SVAR model with three variables and taking the leverage ratio of the resident sector,real estate price and the constructed financial stability index as variables,this paper empirically analyzes the relationship among the three variables.The results show that the leverage ratio of the household sector has a positive effect on the real estate price in the long run and the positive changes of the leverage ratio of the household sector and the real estate price will lead to the decrease of financial stability.