The Measurement And Risk Research Of China's Household Debt Leverage

In the context of the central economic work conference in December 2015,which advocated the destocking of real estate and financial deleveraging,the debt leverage ratio of the government and non-financial enterprises showed a downward trend,while the debt scale of residents increased rapidly.Therefore,it is of great significance to study the debt leverage of residents.this thesis is based on the theories of residents in debt,debt risk and leverage measure and is to analyze the scale and the characteristics of the structure of Chinese residents' liabilities.First of all,ratio measurement method and HP filtering method were used to measure the debt leverage of Chinese residents nationwide and in different cities.The consensus indicates that the overall leverage ratio is still within the controllable range,but Xiamen has the problem of excessive debt.Secondly,the quarterly data of GDP,household debt and resident consumption from 2005 to 2017 were selected to study the risks of household debt and economic growth in China.JJ cointegration test indicates that GDP,residents liabilities and resident consumption have a long-term equilibrium relationship,among which residents debt and consumption were positively related to GDP growth.By the impulse response response figure,however,the positive impact of household debt on GDP and household consumption has a downward trend,indicting that debt is bad for the quality of economic growth,and it is expected that household debt will have a negative impact on economic growth.The vector error correction model shows that household debt can increase GDP in the short term.Thirdly,the risks in the real estate market are mainly analyzed from the perspectives of housing price,mortgage leverage and mortgage rate.The high amount of real estate-related loans and mortgage leverage ratio imply that there is little room for Chinese residents to increase their leverage in real estate,therefore the potential risks cannot be ignored.Finally,from the macro aspect of laws and regulations,personal credit system and social security system along with the micro aspect of the government,financial institutions and residents,suggestions about Chinese residents debt risk are put forward targeted accordingly.