Research On The Default Risk Evaluation Of Borrowers From Online Peer-to-Peer Lending Based On Survival Analysis

Online P2 P Lending is a new financial model in which both the supply and demand sides of the capital use the Internet as the information connection point to realize the financing.Because of its convenience and speed,it can effectively alleviate the financing difficulties of small and medium-sized enterprises and individuals,and promote the redistribution of social capital,which has become an important supplement to China's traditional financial model.In recent years,the development of the online P2 P lending platform is growing rapidly,but the potential risks behind it are not negligible,especially the risk of borrower's default.Research on the influencing factors of borrower default risk is not only beneficial to the P2 P lending platform and investors to avoid risks,but also to promote the sustainable and healthy development of the P2 P lending industry.Based on the previous research results,this thesis first introduces the relevant basic theories of default risk management and survival analysis,and analyzes the applicability of survival analysis in the risk assessment of default.Secondly,the Cox proportional hazards model and the estimation methods of relevant parameters in the model are introduced in detail,and the risk assessment index system is constructed based on the analysis of the influencing factors of P2 P lending risk.Then,based on the Cox proportional hazard model established by Lending Club loan data,an empirical study was conducted on the default risk of P2 P network borrowers.The results of the study show that the borrowing term,annual income and revolving line utilization are protection factors,which reduce the possibility of loan default.The interest rate,credit grade,debt-to-income ratios,and the number of bad records that are disclosed are risk factors that increase the likelihood that a loan will default.There is no significant relationship between the four variables of borrowing amount,monthly repayment amount,working years,housing ownership and the number of overdue debts over 30 days in the past two years.On this basis,the survival rate is estimated and the survival curve of the loan is drawn.Finally,based on the results of empirical research,this thesis proposes risk management recommendations for online P2 P lending platforms and investors.