Reasons Analysis And Empirical Research On The Failure Of Tighten Real Estate Loan Policy

After the mortgage crisis in 2008,China began to implement a series of macro-prudential policies,including restricting real estate credit of banking institutions,in order to control the soaring real estate prices.However,through the continuous rise of real estate prices in the past decade,it is easy to find that these tightening real estate credit policies are not always effective.Under the changing monetary supply environment,the tightening of credit in the real estate industry has failed to achieve the effect of restraining the rise of real estate prices.This phenomenon has triggered a thinking,that is,what is the interaction mechanism between the amount of real estate credit and the price of real estate?What is the underlying reason for the poor effect of credit policy in the real estate industry and whether it is related to the changing monetary supply environment?Studying the relationship between bank credit and real estate market price will help to formulate reasonable policies and maintain the steady development of the real estate market.This paper tries to explain this phenomenon from the relationship between the amount of real estate credit and the price of real estate in different money supply environments.Therefore,the main problem of this paper is the relationship between the amount of real estate credit and the price of real estate under different money supply environment.This paper explores the relationship between the amount of real estate credit and the price of real estate in different situations around the change of money supply environment,and makes corresponding theoretical analysis for the specific research content.Firstly,the relationship between bank credit and real estate price is sorted out and analyzed.Subsequently,considering the money supply environment,from the point of view of bank risk-taking,we consider the change of the relationship between the amount of credit and the price of real estate.In the empirical part,based on the data of 28 provinces in China from 2005 to 2016,we construct a fixed-effect panel data model to distinguish different money supply environments through the relative growth rate of money supply M2,and explore the relationship between credit volume and real estate prices in different environments.It is found that the impact of individual mortgage loans on real estate prices has been structural enhanced after 2009.At the same time,through the policy inclination of the Four Trillion Plan,provincial groups with relatively loose and tight monetary environment are divided to verify the real existence of different relationships between credit volume and real estate prices in different monetary environments.The test proves that there is antagonism between the bank risk-taking behavior in the loose monetary environment and the tightening real estate credit policy,which is mainly reflected in the real estate mortgage loan.Since 2009,the antagonistic effect has been active,which may be an important reason for the weak implementation of China's real estate credit tightening policy on real estate price control after 2009.There are two innovations in this paper.First of all,in many previous academic studies,most of the studies did not discuss the data of real estate development loans and personal housing mortgage loans separately,but used the total amount of loans in the real estate market to study the relationship between credit and real estate prices.In fact,the impact of real estate development loans and personal housing mortgage loans on real estate prices is different,so according to the source,this paper divides the credit types of real estate into bank real estate development loans and bank real estate personal mortgage loans.Secondly,after the tightening of bank credit policy,some borrowers who cannot meet the loan requirements may shift from bank loans to non-bank loans.Therefore,the amount of loans from non-bank financial institutions will also have an impact on real estate prices.This paper collects the data of real estate development loans of non-bank financial institutions,and incorporates the variable of real estate development loans of non-bank financial institutions into the model,which is not available in previous relevant research institutes.In order to explore the reasons for the failure of the real estate credit policy,this paper starts from the perspective of bank risk-taking.To a certain extent,the money supply environment will affect the quality of bank credit,and then affect the real estate price,offset the effect of real estate credit policy on controlling the real estate price.Specifically reflected in our country after the introduction of credit restriction policy(after 2009),the money supply environment is in a relatively relaxed state,most commercial banks will take the initiative to bear all kinds of risks arising from credit relations,in this case,the real estate loan restriction policy intends to control house prices,loose money supply environment.Then it acts on the relationship between the amount of credit and housing prices,diluting the regulation and control of the real estate lending restriction policy.