An Empirical Analysis Of The Impact Of Real Estate Purchase Restriction Policy On House Price

The living environment is an important condition that is closely related to the living conditions and quality of life of human beings.For individuals,real estate prices directly determine the living environment and affect the quality of family life For the society,stable real estate prices can promote healthy economic growth and promote the continuous progress of human society.At the same time,the general improvement of the living environment of members is the driving force for sustained social and economic growth and an important criterion for measuring the degree of social development.However,in the past decade or so,with the rapid development of China's economy,local governments have begun to promote urbanization policies and land fiscal policies,which has caused real estate prices to rise sharply,posing a serious bubble risk.In order to ensure the stable development of the real estate market,China has tried many real estate control policies for more than ten years.The introduction of the purchase restriction policy has solved the problems of some large and medium-sized cities,but the effect is still not obvious.Exploring the impact of real estate purchase restriction policies on real estate price volatility is of great significance for maintaining the stability and prosperity of the real estate market,promoting stable and healthy economic development,maintaining social harmony and safeguarding people's livelihood and well-being.This paper studies the impact of real estate purchase restrictions on real estate prices.Firstly,the relevant literatures at home and abroad are sorted and summarized,and the research themes and perspectives of this paper are established on this basis.The current situation of China's real estate market indicates that there is a bubble phenomenon in this market,so the government has successively introduced policies to regulate real estate prices.Then it expounds the basic theory of the definition of real estate market,price and real estate price formation mechanism,and analyzes the characteristics of China's real estate price fluctuation on the basis of this theory.Then combined with the decision theory of real estate price,select the land price,purchase restriction policy,household consumption level,expectations of future real estate prices,mortgage loan amount,mortgage loan interest rate and other variables,introduce dummy variables of policy indicators,and establish panel quantile regression model.conduct empirical research.Establish specific measurement models and measurement methods,and empirically analyze the sample data to clarify the sources of real estate price volatility,and provide reference for the formulation of public policies to control the stability of real estate prices and maintain the order of the property market.The method of breakpoint regression is further introduced,and the impact of different real estate prices and different policy backgrounds on the real estate price is analyzed.Finally,based on the conclusions of empirical analysis,some suggestions for maintaining the stable and healthy development of China's real estate market are put forward,which provides reference for the formulation and implementation of policies.In terms of research perspective,this paper points out the research perspective to specific policies,focusing on the implementation status and impact degree of the purchase restriction policy.This is because as China's urbanization continues to deepen,the importance of maintaining real estate price stability is becoming more and more prominent.Previously,most domestic scholars have studied the relationship between real estate prices and macro-indicators.There are not many studies on policy introduction,and the special study on the purchase-restriction policy is very rare.In the choice of analytical methods,this paper uses the breakpoint regression method that has not been widely used in China,and the targeted research effect of the policy.At present,most of the relevant researches at home and abroad use VAR,TVP-VAR model to carry out regression research methods,or use DSE,DSGE model by micro and macro research methods.The main conclusions of this paper are as follows:First,there is a long-term stable relationship between the introduction of real estate prices,real estate purchase restriction policies and bank first-home loan interest rates,but the short-term perspective is weak.This shows that the real estate market can be influenced by adjusting monetary policies such as interest rates,but the effect in the short term is not obvious,and there is a time lag.However,when the real estate price deviates from equilibrium for a long time,and the market regulation mechanism of the economic system cannot be significantly effective,the government needs to promptly and forcefully introduce targeted real estate market regulation policies such as the purchase restriction policy.Second,the effect of the short-term purchase restriction policy has different effects on real estate prices in different cities.In large cities,the effect is more obvious,while in small and medium-sized cities,the effect is relatively small,and positive and negative effects coexist.To a certain extent,this is caused by the fact that the purchase restriction is not large enough and the means are not strict enough.Therefore,establishing a long-term real estate control mechanism is a necessary measure to ensure the stable and healthy development of the real estate market.Based on the above conclusions,this paper proposes measures to strictly distinguish between commercial housing and affordable housing,and on this basis,continuously expand the proportion of affordable housing and reduce the proportion of commercial housing;and for those who cannot solve the housing needs,they can provide low-rent housing through the government.Ways;in addition,the pattern of over-industrial concentration should be avoided and appropriate decentralized living patterns should be advocated.