Research On Housing Purchase Restriction And Real Estate Market Vibrations: Aspects Of ‘Price-Volume' Effects And Across-cities Comparisons

Over the past decade,China's urban commercial housing price has become one of the most high-lighted issues concerned.In the overall process of national urban commercial housing price continuously growing,the first tier cities stands out as the representative of the major cities evidently,whilst the regulatory turns out weak.In order to curb the over-rapid growth of housing price and promote the healthy and stable development of the real estate industry,‘Housing Purchase Restriction' implemented as the most stringent regulation,which has attracted extensive attention since introduced and was controversial as well.Since 2014,the real estate market has become cold,and the differentiation across cities has increased.Some of the city government gradually adjusted the existing Housing Purchase Restriction.This research aims to evaluate the effects of implementation and cancellation of the HPR policy on the real estate market from ‘price-volume' double dimension.The continuity and variations across sub-markets and cities of the effects are also followed closely,and therefore the driving forces of the different feedbacks of the same policy could be identified.This research first carries out the descriptive statistics of long-term trend of transaction volume and price to the 90 major cities,to make correlation and comparison of the cities' development level and the housing market characteristic within groups of HPR implemented or not and HPR cancelled or not,and to specify the self-selected mechanism of the policy implementation and cancellation.Secondly,this paper uses the Difference in Difference method to establish the national level measurement model to evaluate the average effect of the implementation and the cancellation of the HPR policy in ‘price-volume' double dimension.Further study is conducted with the controlling variables of market conditions such as region economy,finance and lags introduced.Finally,the Regression Discontinuity Design method is applied to establish independent model to each city respectively,to evaluate the effects of implementation and cancellation of the HPR policy of each city and identify the regional characteristics which cause the differences in policy feedback.Several important conclusions have been drawn in this work,listed as follows:(1)There is a self-selective mechanism behind the implementation and cancellation of the HPR policy across cities.(2)The HPR policy achieved the goal of lowering housing prices and curb the real estate speculation in short term.The effect of the policy varies significantly across regions and those with small supply elasticity and high demand in speculation affected more considerably.(3)The impact of the cancellation of the HPR on real estate market is weak.The feedback of policy diverges in different market cycles and regional sub markets,implicated that the regulation should adapt to market cycle and local conditions.