Research On The Impact Of Purchase Restriction Policy On Housing Price

In order to reduce the rate of rise in house prices,the major cities in our country,which are under pressure from rising house prices,continued to implement the property market regulation policy from October 2016 to May 2017.Whether the requirement of household registration,the certificate of tax payment or the years of social security paid,the restrictions measures on purchases introduced by local governments for the real estate market in essence are all directly stipulates "who can buy" and "how much to buy" through administrative means to reduce the demand for housing.The government hopes to achieve the goal of “limit price” from the perspective of “limit quantity”.However,during this period,the society has raised the question of “the housing price has risen more and more” and “the purchase restriction policy has pushed up the housing price”.Many people attribute the rise in house prices to the introduction of the purchase restriction policy.In response to the question above,this paper analyzes the impact of the purchase restriction policy on house prices objectively.First of all,this paper selects Chengdu by comparing the trend of housing prices in different cities,which is very representative of housing prices,as an empirical research object.Then,many cities where purchase restriction policy has not been implemented,Chongqing was selected as a reference to compare the impact of the purchase restriction policy on housing prices.By means of the double difference method,the influence of the purchase restriction policy on house prices is confirmed by different sample window periods and counterfactual test analysis methods.Finally,according to the principle of microeconomics,this paper further analyzes the impact of the purchase restriction policy on market supply and demand,and explains the reasons for the change in housing prices from the perspective of market supply and demand.Using the data of 183,327 sets of second-hand houses that were sold between September 2015 and February 2019 in Chengdu and Chongqing,the paper draw the following conclusions by double difference method.First,the imbalance between supply and demand is the main reason for the increase in housing prices at the beginning of the purchase restriction policy.Second,the purchase restriction policy helps to alleviate the imbalance between supply and demand in the housing market.Third,with the continuous increase in the policy of restricting purchases,after one year of adjustment,the market supply and demand have been continuously balanced,and the trend of rising house prices has been significantly reversed.