Research On The Impact Of China's Service Trade Deficit On Goods Trade Conditions

With the development of economic globalization,Cooperative development of service trade and goods trade in recent years.the promotion of trade in goods has gradually declined,and the service industry has become an important driving force for the economic development of a country.In the last century,"thedeterioration of terms of trade"denied the view that trade is beneficial to participating countries.Economists Prebisch and Singh suggested that due to the continuous decline in the prices of export-oriented primary products in developing countries,the terms of trade have deteriorated,hindering Economic development in developing countries.This theory has caused scholars to explore the status of countries in the international division of labor.In 1990,Bergs proposed in the article that import services may lead to a deterioration in the terms of trade of a country.This is because services are the intermediate input products in the production of goods.Import services may reduce the cost of goods production,causing the prices of goods in importing countries to fall.The terms of trade deteriorated.At the same time,import and export services may change the comparative advantage of trading countries and affect the trade structure of a country.Judging from the actual situation of China's service trade development,China's service trade started late,and the growth rate far exceeded the growth rate of world service trade in the same period.China's service trade has also shown many problems in the process of development.For example,service trade has been in a state of deficit for a long time,and the scale of service trade is huge but the trade structure is not balanced.In recent years,there has been an increasing view of the "poverty" of economic growth in developing countries,and China's exports of primary products account for a large proportion.The status of processing trade powers has reduced actual trade gains,and there may be "the deterioration of terms of trade".The trade conditions mentioned are deteriorating.With the rise of trade protectionism,China's foreign trade frictions have been raging in the past two years,and the export situation is grim.Therefore,this paper takes trade conditions as the research object,and deeply explores the impact mechanism of service trade deficit on trade in goods from the theoretical point of view.Based on the existing data,it calculates and analyzes the changes of China's trade conditions,and further improves the influencing factors of goods trade conditions.And how to correctly treat the coordinated development of China's services and goods has certain theoretical and practical significance.This paper is roughly divided into the following main parts:First,it reviews the trade theory and domestic and foreign literature related to the impact of trade deficit on trade conditions,and then theoretically studies the relationship between service trade deficit and trade conditions.Secondly,it analyzes the scale and structure of China's service trade deficit,and uses the Laplace formula to calculate the three types of trade conditions index of China from 1996 to 2016,and at the same time,the price trade conditions are divided into primary products and industrial manufactured goods.To consider the changing structure of China's price and trade conditions;finally empirically test the trade conditions effect of service trade.The various types of data used in this paper are mainly derived from China's historical statistical yearbooks and trade-related data on the UN comtrade website.The study finds that China's net export of service trade has been in a deficit state in recent years,and the scale of service trade deficit has been increasing.According to the industry structure,the net export of service trade has been compiled.It is found that China's service trade deficit mainly consists of accommodation and catering industry,transportation and warehousing industry,etc.The traditional service industry constitutes.China's price and trade conditions have been deteriorating for a long time.The deterioration of industrial manufactured goods prices has been more serious.The price and trade conditions of primary products have improved in recent years.The price and trade conditions of primary products have changed with the changes in the prices of industrial manufactured goods.It affects the changing trend of China's price and trade conditions.Although there have been certain fluctuations in individual years,the changes in China's income-trade conditions and single-element terms of trade have generally shown an upward trend in volatility.The econometric model is established to analyze the impact of service trade deficit on the terms of trade of goods.Co-integration test shows that there is a long-term correlation between the two,and the expansion of service trade deficit has worsened the conclusion of China's price and trade conditions.In addition,due to changes in income trade conditions and factor trade conditions,which are also affected by export volume or labor productivity,the two have gradually improved in recent years.At the same time,through impulse response analysis,it is found that price trade conditions can affect the changes of China's service trade deficit,and the price trade conditions.Better to reduce the trade deficit in services.At the end of the article,based on the conclusions.recommendations related to improving terms of trade are proposed.