Research On The Effect And Threshold Characteristics Of China’s Industrial Upgrading On Economic Growth

Economic growth has always been a hot issue in the study of economics,and it is also a key subject for the prosperity of a country,which has great theoretical and practical significance.Upgrading of industrial structure has always been one of the key factors affecting economic development.SO it is necessary and meaningful to explore the relationship between industrial structure upgrading and regional economic growth in China.This paper first arranges and analyzes the literature.After that,on the basis of previous studies,this paper analyzes the impact of industrial structure upgrading on economic growth from two aspects of coordination effect and fueling effect,and innovatively puts forward the industrial coordination index and the industrial fueling index,then further refines the industrial structure upgrading index.Due to the phase characteristics of China’s economic development,this paper examines the data of 1994-2008 and 2009-2016 based on the performance of China’s real GDP on the basis of the national fixed-effect panel estimation.The instrumental variable method and dynamic panel estimation are used to test the robustness.The empirical results show that the industrial structure upgrading affects economic growth through the coordination effect and the fueling effect,which is a comprehensive reflection of the industry coordination index and the industry fueling index.In the early stage of market economy,the coordination effect is not significant.With the deepening of industrial upgrading,the coordination effect gradually turns into a positive effect.The fueling effect always promotes economic growth,but the effect varies in different periods.In all periods of China,the fueling effect of industrial structure is always greater than the coordinating effect of industrial structure.In addition,based on Hansen’s threshold regression model,this paper empirically examines the non-linear impact of four representative economic factors,namely,financial development,government expenditure,infrastructure construction and consumption demand,on the upgrading effect of industrial structure.The empirical results show that the impact of China’s industrial structure upgrading on economic growth is non-linear,and the financial development,government expenditure,infrastructure construction and consumption demand can make China’s industrial structure upgrade have a threshold effect on economic growth.Specifically,financial development is characterized by"U"double-threshold,which first falls and then rises.Government expenditure is characterized by"inverted U"double-threshold,which first rises and then falls.Infrastructure construction is characterized by double-threshold,which is always rising.And consumer demand is characterized by single-threshold,which is always rising.