Research On The Impact Of Macroeconomics Risk On Real Estate Investment Trusts

In recent years,on the one hand,there exists"structural imbalance"in China's real estate industry,which leads to the rapid increase of real estate prices and a large number of people being difficult to buy houses.On the other hand,a large number of floating population in first and second tier cities are facing the problem that it is expensive to rent houses.In this context,the central government has launched a series of relevant policies and regulations around the system of renting and purchasing simultaneously,pointing out that it is necessary to actively promote the development of real estate investment trusts in the housing field.Real estate investment trusts products have attracted widespread attention both for policy orientation and for the economic interests of enterprises.Real Estate Investment Trusts(REITs)was born in the United States in the 1960s and developed in many countries around the world.REITs can not only broaden the financing channels of the real estate industry and promote the healthy development of the real estate market,but also reduce the potential risks of commercial banks and the real estate industry,while providing relatively small risks instrument with stable returns for investors.As a financial innovation product,REITs are faced with macroeconomic risks,such as economic cycle risk,inflation risk,interest rate risk,stock market risk,and the impact of fluctuation of underlying assets on its earnings.The fluctuation of the real estate industry is closely related to REITs.The main content of this paper is whether REITs will fluctuate greatly in the face of macro-environment risk shocks,how macroeconomic risk will affect REITs,and whether REITs can still maintain its robustness.The disclosure of REITs product data in China is relatively opaque,leading domestic scholars to focus on the qualitative analysis and lack of quantitative research of REITs.In this context,this paper will take REITs listed in Hong Kong as the research object,and refer to relevant domestic and foreign literature,using Vector Autoregression Model(VAR)for empirical analysis,from a quantitative point of view to analyze the risk control capability of REITs.In the process of research,firstly,using literature analysis to summarize the risk analysis theory of REITs.Then expounding the characteristics and related concepts of REITs to precise the scope and basic content of research object.In the empirical test,this paper vertifies the impact of macroeconomic risk on REITs to pave the way for further analysis by constructing the"China Concept"REITs index as research target and take several variables representing macroeconomic risk based on OLS model.Then,measuring the risk of REITs index by VAR model.The results show that REITs return index is less affected by macroeconomic fluctuations,but more affected by its own.It shows that REITs can prevent economic cycle,inflation and resist macroeconomics risk.It is a relatively robust investment tool.At the same time,it is suggested that the managers of REITs should pay attention to the credit rating of REITs and improve the risk management awareness of REITs in the process of operating REITs products.