Risk Analysis And Management Of Domestic Real Estate Trust Investment Funds

In the marketization process of the real estate industry in the past 20 years,real estate finance has been the main factor supporting the development of the real estate industry.The large amount of financing by housing enterprises has rapidly expanded the market size and the volume of housing enterprises,and the number of 100 billion-level housing enterprises has been increasing.However,with the rapid development of China's real estate industry,the deep-seated problems and contradictions in real estate investment have arisen.On the one hand,the main source of funds for most real estate companies in China is bank loans.If banks restrict loans,real estate companies will have a capital chain crisis.On the other hand,because the real estate industry needs a large amount of funds,and a single individual is difficult to meet such huge expenditures,it is difficult for real estate companies to raise funds from individual investors.As a new type of real estate financing,Real Estate Investment Trust have gradually been valued by the financial industry and the real estate industry.This paper will analyze the risks faced by China,s in developing real estate trust investment fimds.Firstly,this paper introduce the real estate trust investment fund,and then divide the risks faced by it into three categories:market risk,operational risk and environmental risk.Risk control measures are proposed for operational risk and environmental risk,including establishing a talent training mechanism,strengthening legal system management,and improving the supervision systeru.As for market risk,taking the Yuexiu Real Estate Trust Fund in Hong Kong stocks as the research object,and using the ARCH(1),ARCH(2),GARCH(1,1)models to compare.Finally,selecting the GARCH(1,1)model to count the volatility of Yuexiu Real Estate Trust Fund form 2010 to 2017.The VaR model is used to predict the value at risk form 2017 to 2019,and compared with the actual profit and loss to prove the validity of the VaR model,and finally proposes risk control measures of the market risk.This includes conducting research beforehand,taking VaR as the risk measurement standard,and conducting supervision afterwards.