Research On Influencing Factors Of Oil Futures Price

With the continuous improvement of industrialization around the world,the con-sumption for oil resources is increasing day by day.At the same time,with the up-grading of people's quality of life,the demand for petroleum products is also increas-ing.But the contradiction is that,many countries are not rich in oil reserves and mainly rely on the international oil market to obtain oil resources.Therefore,the fluc-tuation of international oil prices will have a great impact on the investment strategy,economic policies and strategic policies of these countries.The oil crisis in the 1970s brought huge impact to the oil market and spread to each participant in the market.Many countries were increasingly aware of the importance of oil resources and began to reserve oil resources.At the same time,in order to avoid the risk of oil price fluctu-ations,oil futures came into being.Due to its unique operation mechanism,oil futures play a role of price guidance for oil spot.Mastering the law of oil futures price fluctu-ation can help individuals,organizations or countries to make more reasonable invest-ment in oil resources.On the basis of summarizing previous scholars'research results,this paper di-vides the factor affecting the price of oil futures into five aspects:dollar exchange rate factor,oil supply and demand factor,oil inventory factor,oil speculation factor,poli-tics and emergencies factor,and makes theoretical analysis on the mechanism of these factor affecting the price of oil futures.In the empirical aspect,this paper uses Lasso regression model to quantitatively study the influence of dollar exchange rate factor,oil supply factor and demand factor,and oil inventory factor on oil futures prices,and compares Lasso regression model with multiple linear regression model in terms of fitting degree,generalization ability and prediction accuracy.Empirical research shows that,Lasso regression model solves the problem of multiple collinearity among variables by feature selection,and the generalization ability of Lasso regression model is much higher than that of multivariate linear model.Additionally,from January 2010 to February 2018,the dollar exchange rate dominates the WTI crude oil futures prices.Specifically,WTI crude oil futures fell(rose)by $1.6482 per barrel for each point of rise(fall)in the broad dollar exchange rate.